MTO检修兑现，港口延续累库现实

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In July, the overseas methanol plant operation rate dropped from a high level, but the overall operation level remained relatively high, and the supply pressure was still significant. In August, the pressure of imported methanol arriving at ports further increased. Meanwhile, the Xingxing MTO plant started a one - month maintenance at the end of July, leading to continuous inventory accumulation at ports. - In July, it was the concentrated maintenance period for coal - based methanol plants in the inland areas. In August, some plants in Inner Mongolia and Shaanxi were still under maintenance, and the operation rate would gradually recover only in late August. The supply in the inland areas was relatively tight. Although it was the seasonal off - peak season for formaldehyde, its operation rate had rebounded from the bottom. The operation rates of MTBE and acetic acid remained resilient, and the demand in the inland areas was also strong. The inventory of inland methanol plants decreased again, showing a pattern where the inland market was stronger than the port market. - The production profit of coal - based methanol remained at a relatively high level. In terms of upstream raw materials, due to the seasonal peak of daily consumption and the increase in coking coal prices, the price of steam coal at the Inner Mongolia mine mouth gradually recovered. The coking coal market was also an indicator affecting the subsequent trend of the coal - chemical industry. - The balance sheet showed that the total inventory in August was close to the supply - demand balance, with inventory accumulation at ports and inventory reduction in the inland areas [6][7]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Methanol Basis Structure - The basis of Taicang Port further weakened, corresponding to the inventory accumulation period at ports. Meanwhile, the MA9 - 1 inter - period spread also continued to weaken. - The basis trends were significantly differentiated. The port basis weakened, while the inland basis rebounded, indicating that the port market was weak and the inland market was strong [17][20]. Methanol Port Supply - Demand Analysis Overseas Methanol Newly - Added Capacity - In December 2024, the 1.7 - million - ton/year Marubeni 3 plant in Malaysia was put into production. In April 2025, the 1.65 - million - ton/year VenIran apadana Petrochemical Co plant in Iran was put into production, and its operation rate was gradually increasing. In the second half of 2025, the 1.65 - million - ton/year Dena Methanol plant in Iran was expected to be put into production [22]. Overseas Methanol Operation Rate and Forecast - In July, the overseas plant operation rate dropped from a high level. The Iranian busher plant had a short - term maintenance until early August, the ZPC plant reduced its load to 50%, the Marubeni 1 and 2 plants reduced their loads to 50%, and the 3 plant had been under maintenance since late July. The Brunei plant was scheduled for maintenance in late August, with concentrated maintenance in Southeast Asia. In South America, an 880,000 - ton/year plant of Chilean Methanex was still shut down, and the Trinidad plant had been operating stably since July, indicating that the lowest operation rate in South America had passed. The overall overseas operation rate remained at a high level, and the estimated imported methanol arriving at ports in August would further increase to around 1.3 million tons, indicating continued pressure on port arrivals [26]. Methanol Import Profit and Cross - Country Spread - In July, when the overseas operation rate was relatively high, the overseas premium performance was differentiated. Due to concentrated maintenance in Southeast Asia, the Southeast Asia - China spread quickly rebounded and then quickly declined again. The US Gulf - China methanol spread strengthened, while the Rotterdam - China spread weakened. Since there was not much maintenance in Europe and the US, it reflected the difference in demand [36]. Methanol Port Inventory - The port inventory continued to accumulate, mainly in Jiangsu, the trading distribution center. The inventory in Zhejiang, where MTO plants were located, decreased as MTO plants redirected their shipments to Jiangsu. The inventory in South China ports also accelerated its accumulation [44]. Downstream MTO Plant Operation - The Xingxing MTO plant started a one - month maintenance at the end of July, dragging down the port demand. Attention should be paid to whether the pre - planned load reduction of the Nanjing Chengzhi MTO plant could be implemented [53]. Methanol Regional Spread - Currently, the inland market was strong while the port market was weak, and the port - to - inland return window was largely closed, resulting in a fragmented state between the port and inland markets. In the traditional downstream sector, the unexpectedly high operation rate of MTBE drove the consumption of inland inventory [57]. Inland Methanol Supply - Demand Analysis China's Methanol Newly - Added Capacity - In the non - integrated sector, the pressure of newly - added plant production was not significant. In the first half of the year, only the 1 - million - ton/year Xinjiang Zhongtai plant was put into production in May, and its operation rate was not high. In the second half of the year, the newly - added capacity was limited, mainly green methanol. In 2025, the newly - added capacity was mainly from integrated plants, and all three lines of Inner Mongolia Baofeng had been put into production [64][65]. China's Methanol Operation Rate (by Process) - In terms of existing plants, coal - based methanol plants had concentrated maintenance in July, mainly in Shaanxi. In August, there were still maintenance plans in Inner Mongolia and Shaanxi, and the operation rate would gradually recover only at the end of August. The production profit of coal - based methanol remained at a relatively high level. In terms of upstream raw materials, due to the seasonal peak of daily consumption and the increase in coking coal prices, the price of steam coal at the Inner Mongolia mine mouth gradually recovered. The coking coal market was also an indicator affecting the subsequent trend of the coal - chemical industry [68]. Methanol Inland Inventory and Traditional Downstream Operation - Against the background of concentrated maintenance of coal - based methanol plants, the inland factory inventory remained at a relatively low level compared to the same period, indicating that the inland market was stronger than the port market. - The operation rate of traditional downstream industries declined, corresponding to the off - peak season for formaldehyde. Although it was the seasonal off - peak season for formaldehyde, its operation rate had rebounded from the bottom. The operation rates of MTBE and acetic acid remained resilient, and the demand in the inland areas was also strong. The inventory of inland methanol plants decreased again, showing a pattern where the inland market was stronger than the port market [74].