减产预期继续演进，钢价有望整体偏强

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the steel industry is "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints - The steel market is expected to remain strong overall due to ongoing production cuts and favorable demand conditions, despite recent price declines and inventory increases [3][4] - The report highlights that while the steel industry faces supply-demand imbalances, the implementation of "stability growth" policies is likely to support steel demand, particularly in real estate and infrastructure sectors [3][4] - The report suggests that the industry is moving towards a more concentrated supply structure, which may stabilize the overall supply-demand situation [3][4] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The steel sector declined by 2.26% this week, underperforming the broader market, with specific declines in various sub-sectors: special steel down 1.28%, long products down 4.00%, and flat products down 1.80% [10][12] - Iron ore and steel raw materials also saw declines, with iron ore down 5.96% and steel consumables down 3.74% [12] Supply Data - As of August 1, the average daily pig iron production was 2.4071 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 1.52 tons, but a year-on-year increase of 1.10 tons [25] - The capacity utilization rate for blast furnaces was 90.2%, down 0.57 percentage points week-on-week, while electric furnace utilization increased by 1.56 percentage points to 57.1% [25] Demand Data - Total consumption of the five major steel products was 8.52 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 161,000 tons, reflecting a 1.85% decline [35] - The transaction volume of construction steel by mainstream traders was 94,000 tons, down 2.07 tons week-on-week, marking an 18.00% decrease [35] Inventory Data - Social inventory of the five major steel products increased to 9.424 million tons, up 152,900 tons week-on-week, but down 25.37% year-on-year [43] - Factory inventory remained stable at 4.095 million tons, with a slight week-on-week increase of 1,000 tons [43] Price Trends - The comprehensive index for ordinary steel was 3,563.9 yuan/ton, down 42.25 yuan/ton week-on-week, while the special steel index increased slightly to 6,629.6 yuan/ton [49] - The profit for rebar production was 200 yuan/ton, a significant decrease of 82.0 yuan/ton week-on-week [57] Raw Material Prices - The spot price index for Australian iron ore (62% Fe) was 770 yuan/ton, down 13.0 yuan/ton week-on-week [70] - The price for first-grade metallurgical coke was 1,660 yuan/ton, up 55.0 yuan/ton week-on-week [70] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on regional leaders with advanced equipment and environmental standards, as well as companies benefiting from the new energy cycle and high-margin special steel producers [3][4]