集运指数(欧线)观点：现货市场延续弱势，10空单酌情持有-20250803

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The spot market for the Container Shipping Index (European Line) continues to be weak, and it is advisable to hold short positions for the October contract as appropriate [1][4][5] - On a monthly basis, September is likely to see a double decline in supply and demand, but the decline in the currently estimated shipping capacity may be less than that in demand, and the fundamentals are expected to face further pressure. The trading logic of the market fundamentals remains to go short on rallies [5] - Overseas macro - factors show that the growth of non - farm payrolls in the US in July was lower than expected, and the unemployment rate rose slightly, leading to a deterioration in market risk appetite and a decline in global stock markets. Attention should be paid to the short - term market's pricing of "recession" and whether it will resonate with the EC fundamentals [5] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Overview - Supply: In the past week, the weekly shipping capacity in August was slightly revised up from 321,000 TEU to 328,000 TEU/week, and the weekly average shipping capacity in September was slightly revised up from 314,000 TEU to 318,000 TEU/week [4][54] - Demand: Since mid - August, the overall cargo volume in the market has shown a mild downward trend. The freight rate center in the 33rd week dropped to around $3,150/FEU, corresponding to an SCFIS index of around 2,200 points. The current FAK freight rate reduction speed is neutral [4] 3.2 Price - Spot freight and index tracking: The SCFIS index on July 28 was in line with expectations. The index on August 4 was expected to change little. The market freight rate center in the 33rd week dropped to around $3,150/FEU [13][17] - Freight rate trends of major alliances: Different alliances such as Gemini, OA, and PA have different degrees of freight rate adjustments. For example, in the Gemini alliance, Maersk's opening price from Shanghai to Rotterdam in the 33rd week decreased by $100/FEU compared with the 32nd week [7] 3.3 Demand Side - US imports: In June, the total US import container volume was 2,381,063 TEU, a year - on - year decrease of 2.1%. The import volume from different countries and regions showed different trends. For example, the import volume from China was 761,585 TEU, a year - on - year decrease of 24.9% [29] - Asian exports: The container trade volume between Asia and Europe, North America, and other regions showed different seasonal trends. For example, in May, Asia's container exports to Europe were 1.81 million TEU, a month - on - month increase of 10.1% and a year - on - year increase of 16.0% [34][43] 3.4 Supply Side - European line shipping schedules: The weekly shipping capacity in August was slightly revised up, and the weekly average shipping capacity in September was also slightly revised up, with changes in ship schedules such as the addition of overtime ships and changes in the status of some voyages [54] - Dynamic shipping capacity: The speed of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU and 17,000 + TEU container fleets remained volatile at high levels. The number of idle 12,000 - 16,999 TEU container fleets increased by 1 ship compared with last week [60][61] - Turnover efficiency: The congestion situation of container ships in ports around the world, including China, the UK, Europe, North America, etc., showed different trends [66][69][72] - Static shipping capacity: In the past three months, major liner companies have received new ships of different sizes. From August to December, major liner companies are expected to receive 28 new 12,000 - 16,999 TEU container ships and 5 new 17,000 + TEU container ships [82][87]