国泰君安期货能源化工天然橡胶周度报告-20250803

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The natural rubber market is expected to experience weak consolidation in the short term. The supply from the main producing areas is increasing, leading to a continuous decline in raw material prices and a weakening of cost support. Terminal demand is weak, with low operating rates, providing limited support for rubber prices. Additionally, after the digestion and adjustment of macro - sentiment, the market's bearish sentiment is rising [82][83]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Industry News - ANRPC's June 2025 report predicts that global natural rubber production in June will decrease by 1.5% to 1191000 tons, while consumption will increase by 0.7% to 1271000 tons. In the first half of the year, cumulative production is expected to decline by 1.1% to 6076000 tons, and cumulative consumption will increase by 1% to 7715000 tons. In 2025, global production is expected to increase by 0.5% to 14892000 tons, and consumption is expected to increase by 1.3% to 15565000 tons. The natural rubber price showed a bearish trend in June due to improved supply in major producing areas, rising port inventories, and uncertainties brought by trade tariffs [5]. - In the second quarter of 2025, the sales volume of the European replacement tire market decreased by 3.5% year - on - year to 57044000 pieces. Except for the motorcycle and scooter tire segments, the sales volume of various tire categories was lower than that in the first half of 2019 [6]. - In the first half of 2025, Thailand's total exports of natural rubber and mixed rubber increased by 13.2% year - on - year to 2257000 tons, and exports to China increased by 35% year - on - year to 1423000 tons [7]. Market Trends - This week, both domestic and foreign markets experienced significant pullbacks. On August 1, 2025, the closing prices of RU2509, NR2509, Singapore TSR20:2509, and Tokyo RSS3:2509 decreased by 8.18%, 8.60%, 8.11%, and 4.57% respectively compared to the previous period [10][11]. Price Differences - The price differences between RU - NR, RU - BR, NR - SGX TSR20, and RU - JPX RSS3 narrowed. For example, on August 1, 2025, the price difference of RU09 - NR09 was 2135 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 5.74% [23][24]. - This week, the import rubber market's offer prices declined. The price differences between imported rubber and RU showed different trends. For example, the price difference between Thai mixed rubber and RU was - 260 yuan/ton on August 1, 2025, with a month - on - month increase of 46.39% [26][27]. - The price difference between whole - milk and Thai mixed rubber decreased, while the price difference between 3L and Thai mixed rubber increased. On August 1, 2025, the price difference between 3L and Thai mixed rubber was 450 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 200% [32][33]. - The price differences between synthetic rubber and RU narrowed. On August 1, 2025, the price difference between butadiene rubber and RU was - 2710 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 19.94% [35][36]. Capital Trends - The virtual - to - physical ratio of RU was at a relatively low level, and the settled funds were at a low level compared to the same period last year. The virtual - to - physical ratio of NR decreased rapidly, and the settled funds also decreased rapidly. On August 1, 2025, the virtual - to - physical ratio of RU was 4.75, with a month - on - month decrease of 32.01% [38][39]. Fundamental Data Supply - In the Thai production area, the temperature and rainfall in the southern part increased significantly. In domestic production areas, recent rainfall in Hainan and Yunnan was at a high level compared to the same period [42][44]. - Due to the fading of macro - sentiment, the prices of rubber futures and spot goods declined, and raw material prices also followed suit. However, due to more rainfall in Yunnan recently, raw material prices remained relatively firm. On August 1, 2025, the price of Thai cup rubber was 47.4 Thai baht/kg, with a month - on - month decrease of 5.20% [47][48]. - The price difference between Thai glue and cup rubber increased, and the price difference between Hainan glue entering the concentrated latex factory and the whole - milk factory first increased and then decreased. On August 1, 2025, the price difference between Thai glue and cup rubber was 6.6 Thai baht/kg, with a month - on - month increase of 24.53% [55][56]. - As the decline of raw materials was smaller than that of finished products, the overall processing profit decreased. On August 1, 2025, the production profit of Thai standard rubber was - 111 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 202.78% [58][59]. - In June 2025, China's imports of natural rubber (including mixed and composite rubber) increased by 2.21% month - on - month and 33.95% year - on - year. The imports of Thai mixed rubber, Vietnamese mixed rubber, and Vietnamese standard rubber increased significantly month - on - month, while the imports of Thai standard rubber decreased significantly [62][63]. Demand - During the cycle, some tire enterprises arranged maintenance at the end of the month, which dragged down the overall capacity utilization rate. At the end of the month, the overall shipment of enterprises was concentrated, and the finished product inventory decreased. On August 1, 2025, the capacity utilization rates of all - steel and semi - steel tires were 59.26% and 69.98% respectively, with month - on - month decreases of 4.77% and 0.11% [66][67]. - In June 2025, the exports of all - steel and semi - steel tires decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year. The sales volume of passenger cars maintained high growth, and the sales volume of heavy - duty trucks improved significantly both month - on - month and year - on - year [70][71]. Inventory - This week, China's natural rubber inventory increased slightly, with a decrease in light - colored rubber inventory and an increase in dark - colored rubber inventory. On July 25, 2025, the dark - colored rubber inventory was 804900 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 1.17% [73][75]. - The futures inventory of natural rubber on the Shanghai Futures Exchange and the Shanghai International Energy Exchange showed different trends. On August 1, 2025, the futures inventory of natural rubber on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 177600 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 2.41% [78][79]. This Week's Viewpoint Summary - This week's view on natural rubber is weak consolidation. The supply in the producing areas continues to increase, raw material prices are falling, and cost support is weakening. Terminal demand is weak, and the operating rate is low, providing limited support for rubber prices. It is expected that the rubber price will continue to be weakly consolidated in the short term [82][83].