钢铁周报：不看深跌，看好金九银十旺季-20250803

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is positive, indicating a favorable outlook for the sector [1][22]. Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes optimism for the steel industry during the peak seasons of September and October, suggesting that the current price declines should not deter investment [1]. - The report highlights that the overall inventory levels for major steel products have shown a slight increase, which may impact future pricing dynamics [4]. - The report notes that the average daily production of molten iron is projected to remain stable, indicating a balanced supply-demand scenario [8]. Summary by Sections Price Trends - The SW Steel Index has decreased by 2.2% week-on-week but has increased by 16.4% year-to-date [3]. - The price of rebar (HRB400 20mm) is currently at 3,350 CNY per ton, reflecting a week-on-week decline of 2.9% and a year-to-date decrease of 1.8% [3]. Inventory Levels - The total social inventory of the five major steel products stands at 941,000 tons, with a year-to-date increase of 2% [4]. - The total inventory at steel mills is reported at 410,000 tons, which has increased by 16.9% year-to-date [4]. Supply and Demand - The report indicates that the average daily production of major steel products is expected to remain consistent, supporting stable market conditions [8]. - The report also mentions that the iron ore price index is currently at 99 USD per ton, down by 3.5% week-on-week [3].