行业周报：国债恢复利息增值税征收对险企投资端影响较小-20250803

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" (maintained) [2] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that the impact of the restoration of VAT on bond interest income for insurance companies is minimal, with the insurance sector benefiting indirectly from the stabilization of prices and long-term interest rates [4][5] - The brokerage sector has seen a rapid increase in margin financing, with a daily average trading volume of 2.22 trillion yuan in July, reflecting a 7.2% increase in financing balance compared to the beginning of the month [4] - The report emphasizes continued support for the brokerage sector, highlighting low valuations and significant institutional underweighting, with a focus on trading volume, stablecoins, and policy catalysts [4] Summary by Sections Non-Bank Financial - The report notes a 17% fluctuation in the non-bank financial sector compared to the CSI 300 index, with projections for future performance remaining positive [3] Brokerage Sector - The report highlights the rapid growth in margin financing, with a financing balance of 1,971 billion yuan as of July 31, marking a 7.2% increase [4] - The Central Political Bureau's meeting reiterated support for stabilizing the stock market, which is expected to enhance the attractiveness and inclusivity of the domestic capital market [4] - The report identifies three main lines of focus: retail-focused brokerages, leading brokerages with overseas business advantages, and financial technology-related stocks [4] Insurance Sector - The restoration of VAT on bond interest income is projected to have a minor impact on insurance companies' investment yields, with a calculated decrease of 3 basis points in investment returns [5] - The report emphasizes the importance of equity markets for the life insurance sector, with a focus on the transformation of participating insurance products [5] Recommended and Beneficiary Stocks - The report recommends a combination of stocks including Guotai Junan, Dongfang Securities, Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing, and others, indicating a diversified approach to investment opportunities [6][7]