Tianfeng Securities·2025-08-03 11:21Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Outperform the Market (Maintain Rating) [1] Core Insights - The report indicates a cautious outlook for the basic metals sector, with copper and aluminum prices experiencing downward pressure due to macroeconomic factors and weak demand [4][10][20] - Precious metals are expected to see upward movement in gold prices driven by recession fears and adjustments in U.S. economic data [6][24] - The report highlights the stability in the rare earth sector, with expectations for improved fundamentals in the upcoming quarter [8] Summary by Sections 1. Base Metals & Precious Metals - Copper: Price has retreated to 78,170 CNY/ton, with low inventory providing some support despite seasonal demand weakness [4][13] - Aluminum: Prices have decreased, with the average price at 20,623 CNY/ton, influenced by rising social inventory and subdued market demand [5][20] - Precious Metals: Gold price averaged 767.63 CNY/gram, down 1.67%, while silver averaged 9,158 CNY/kg, down 1.44% [6][24] 2. Minor Metals - Antimony: Prices remain stable, with market dynamics showing limited supply and demand [7][40] - Lithium: Carbonate prices have dropped, reflecting a cooling market sentiment [40] - Cobalt: Prices are strong due to tight supply conditions, with cobalt intermediate prices rising [42][43] - Tin: Prices have declined, with the average price at 33,410 USD/ton, reflecting weakened macro sentiment [45] - Tungsten: Prices have increased across the board, with black tungsten concentrate averaging 195,500 CNY/ton [51] - Molybdenum: Prices have surged, with molybdenum concentrate averaging 4,315 CNY/ton, driven by strong market demand [61][62] 3. Rare Earths - Rare earth prices are stable, with light rare earth oxide prices increasing by 3.3% to 531,000 CNY/ton, indicating a potential for significant improvement in fundamentals [8]