Shenwan Hongyuan Securities·2025-08-03 11:48Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the real estate and property management sectors [3][36]. Core Views - The report indicates that the broad housing demand in China has reached a bottom, but it will take approximately two years for residents' balance sheets to recover, leading to a continued downward trend in volume and price [3][36]. - It is expected that the real estate market in core cities is at a turning point and will lead the recovery, driven by improved supply-demand dynamics and residents' financial health [3][36]. - The introduction of new policies for housing will create new development tracks, enhancing the market in core cities with lower penetration rates [3][36]. Industry Data - New home transaction volume in 34 cities increased by 17.3% week-on-week, with first and second-tier cities up by 18.3% and third and fourth-tier cities up by 2.7% [4][7]. - In July, the transaction volume for new homes in 34 cities decreased by 20.2% year-on-year, with first and second-tier cities down by 15.3% and third and fourth-tier cities down by 56.2% [7][8]. - The inventory of new homes in 15 cities decreased by 0.4% week-on-week, with a current available residential area of 89.088 million square meters [20][21]. Policy and News Tracking - The Political Bureau of the Central Committee emphasized high-quality urban renewal and the implementation of urban renewal actions to promote the healthy development of the real estate market [29][32]. - The Ministry of Finance supports the construction of a new model for real estate development and the implementation of urban renewal actions [29][32]. - Local governments are implementing measures to stabilize the real estate market, including policies for public rental housing and adjustments to housing provident fund policies [29][33]. Company Dynamics - The report notes that Joy City Real Estate plans to privatize, intending to cancel 4.73 billion shares, which accounts for 33.24% of its total shares [3][36]. - Lujiazui reported a 33.91% increase in revenue for the first half of 2025, reaching 6.598 billion yuan, while net profit decreased by 7.87% to 815 million yuan [36]. - New City Holdings issued 1 billion yuan in medium-term notes at a record low interest rate of 2.68% for five years [36].