政策半月观：四大主线、四大机会

Policy Focus - Recent policies continue to emphasize stabilizing growth, expanding domestic demand, and combating "involution" in various sectors[2] - The Politburo meeting on July 30 confirmed the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee will be held in October to review the "14th Five-Year Plan" proposals[2] - The Ministry of Finance announced a new tax policy on bond interest income, effective August 8, aimed at alleviating fiscal pressure and preventing excessive capital accumulation in interest-bearing bonds[6] Social and Economic Initiatives - The implementation of a childcare subsidy program was announced, providing 3,600 yuan per child per year until the age of three, aimed at boosting birth rates[7] - The State Council is promoting free preschool education to reduce childcare costs, with a focus on enhancing support for families with multiple children[3] Industry and Trade Policies - The introduction of "zero tariff" policies and relaxed trade management measures for the Hainan Free Trade Port aims to enhance trade efficiency and attract investment[8] - A new round of US-China trade talks has been initiated, with both sides agreeing to extend previously suspended tariffs for 90 days[5] Local Government Actions - Local governments are focusing on economic stabilization through measures such as urban renewal and artificial intelligence initiatives, with Shanghai planning a city renewal action plan for 2026-2028[9] - Beijing has allocated 10 million yuan for film viewing subsidies and is implementing various measures to support families with multiple children[10] Market Implications - The new tax on bond interest is expected to lead to a short-term decline in interest rates and create pricing discrepancies between new and existing bonds, potentially impacting the bond market negatively in the long term[6] - The emphasis on stabilizing the capital market and promoting service consumption indicates a cautious approach to economic stimulus, focusing on gradual recovery rather than aggressive measures[4]