海外观察：美国2025年7月非农数据：美国就业加速降温，降息转折是否显现？

Employment Data Summary - In July 2025, the U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by 73,000, significantly below the expected 104,000, with the previous month's figure revised down from 147,000 to 14,000, resulting in a total downward revision of 253,000 for May and June[2] - The unemployment rate rose from 4.1% to 4.2%, while the U6 unemployment rate increased by 0.2 percentage points to 7.9%[2] - The labor force participation rate fell for the fourth consecutive month, decreasing by 0.1 percentage points to 62.2%[2] Wage Growth Insights - Private sector hourly wage growth increased from 0.2% to 0.3% month-on-month, driven primarily by the service sector, where wage growth rose from 0.2% to 0.4%[3] - Retail sector hourly wage growth surged from 0.2% to 1.2%, attributed to increased hiring demand during the summer season and inventory replenishment[3] Sector Performance Analysis - The service sector added 96,000 jobs in July, while the production sector remained weak, with a loss of 13,000 jobs[2] - Government employment decreased by 10,000, with federal government layoffs continuing[2] Market Reactions and Future Outlook - Following the release of the employment data, market expectations for a rate cut increased, with the probability of a 25 basis point cut in September rising from 43.2% to 80.3%[3] - The report indicates a growing concern over the dual challenge of "low employment" and "high inflation," complicating the Federal Reserve's policy decisions[3]