南华期货玻璃纯碱产业周报：交易回归现实-20250803

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Report Core Views Glass - Trading is returning to industry reality, but policy expectations may fluctuate between continuation and cooling, causing market sentiment to be volatile [1]. - On the fundamental side, the daily melting volume on the supply - side has slightly increased, with no unexpected situations. The cumulative apparent demand for glass has declined by 8%, but it has improved month - on - month due to better - than - expected production and sales from June to July, and the market is in a weak equilibrium [1]. - Middle - stream inventory is at a high level. After a sharp decline in the futures market, there is a negative feedback loop, resulting in weak production and sales. Spot prices are also weakening, with low - priced spot glass in Hubei around 1140 - 1160 yuan/ton [1]. 纯碱 - Market sentiment has declined, and trading is returning to fundamentals. Supply is fluctuating within a narrow range, with expected maintenance continuing and having a phased impact on production [5]. - Photovoltaic glass is in a continuous loss state, and its in - production daily melting volume is decreasing, but the finished product inventory is being depleted rapidly, which requires continuous attention [5]. - Overall, the rigid demand for soda ash is expected to remain weak, and the balance of heavy soda ash remains in surplus. The inventory of the upstream and middle - stream is at a historical high. The supply - strong and demand - weak pattern of soda ash remains unchanged, and attention should also be paid to the price fluctuations of coal and raw salt on the cost side [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Glass Glass Futures Disk - Data includes the seasonal trends of the closing price, trading volume, and warehouse receipt quantity of the glass futures main contract [7]. Glass Spot Data - It shows the seasonal trends of prices of various glass products in different regions, such as the average price of the Shahe delivery product, and the market prices of 5mm float glass in different regions [9][13][15]. Glass Month - to - Month and Basis - Presents the seasonal trends of glass futures month - to - month spreads (e.g., 05 - 09, 09 - 01, 01 - 05) and basis of different contracts (e.g., 01, 05, 09) in different regions (e.g., Shahe, Hubei Yijun) [25][27][29]. Glass Supply Data - Covers the seasonal trends of glass production, loss volume, start - up rate, production line start - up number, and capacity utilization rate in China [41][42][46]. Glass Production and Sales - Displays the seasonal trends of the overall glass production and sales rate, as well as the production and sales rates in different regions (e.g., Shahe, Hubei, East China, South China) [49][50][52]. Glass Deep - Processing - Shows the seasonal trends of deep - processed glass raw material inventory days, deep - processing order days, and the ratio and difference between them [56]. Glass Cost and Profit - Presents the cost and profit situations of different glass production processes (e.g., coal - fired, natural - gas - fired, petroleum - coke - fired), including their seasonal trends [60][62][63]. Glass Import and Export - Displays the seasonal trends of glass import quantity, export quantity, and net export quantity in China [65][66]. Glass Statistical Bureau Data - Shows the monthly production values of different types of glass (e.g., flat glass, hollow glass, tempered glass, laminated glass) [69][70]. Glass Inventory - Covers the overall glass inventory, inventory in different regions, inventory in Shahe, and apparent demand (both with and without imports and exports) [71][73][80]. Soda Ash Soda Ash Futures Disk - Data includes the seasonal trends of the closing price, trading volume, and warehouse receipt quantity of the soda ash futures main contract [90]. Soda Ash Spot Data - It shows the seasonal trends of the market prices of heavy and light soda ash in different regions, as well as the price differences between heavy and light soda ash in different regions [94][98][101]. Soda Ash Month - to - Month and Basis - Presents the seasonal trends of soda ash futures month - to - month spreads (e.g., 05 - 09, 09 - 01, 01 - 05) and basis of different contracts (e.g., 01, 05, 09) in Shahe [110][112][114]. Soda Ash Supply Data - Covers the seasonal trends of soda ash weekly production, heavy - soda ratio, production of heavy and light soda ash by domestic enterprises, and capacity utilization rate in different regions and production methods [118][121][124]. Soda Ash Cost and Profit - Presents the cost and profit trends of different soda ash production processes (e.g., ammonia - soda process, co - production process), including their seasonal trends [138][139][142]. Soda Ash Import and Export - Displays the seasonal trends of soda ash monthly import quantity, export quantity, and net export quantity [147][148]. Soda Ash Inventory - Covers the overall soda ash inventory, inventory in different regions, and apparent demand (both with and without imports and exports), as well as the number of days of pending orders for soda ash enterprises and the raw material inventory days of glass factories [150][155][159]. Photovoltaic Glass - Shows the seasonal trends of photovoltaic glass daily melting volume, loss volume, and enterprise inventory (both weekly and monthly), as well as the combined data of float glass and photovoltaic glass [174][175][180].