现货运价松动，关注后期运价下行斜率

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - China - Europe Base Port: In August, the monthly average weekly capacity was 347,300 TEU, and in September, it was 297,100 TEU. In August, Maersk added two additional vessels, and the OA Alliance added one. There were 4 blank sailings in August, all from the OA Alliance, and currently 3 TBNs in August and 2 in September [2][115]. - August Contract: The top of the freight rate has appeared. The estimated SCFIS on August 4th and 11th is between 2300 - 2400 points. The delivery settlement price has been revised down to 2100 - 2200 points. Pay attention to Maersk's Week 34 opening price [3][122]. - October Contract: It is mainly for short - allocation. Normally, October is one of the two months with the lowest freight rates in a year. The 10 - month contract price is usually 20% - 30% lower than that in August. Currently, the 10 - contract is equivalent to a spot price of around $2000/FEU. In the context of a large discount, it is relatively safe to short the EC2510 contract on rallies, but do not over - short [4][123]. - December Contract: The pattern of off - peak and peak seasons still exists. The risk lies in whether the Suez Canal will resume navigation. Normally, the price in December is more than 10% higher than that in October [6][124]. Summary by Directory 7 - Month Container Freight Rate Review - Futures Market: As of August 1st, the total open interest of all contracts of the container shipping index (European line) futures was 75,300 lots, and the trading volume on that day was 41,800 lots. In July, the EC2508 contract rose 20.73%, the EC2510 contract rose 6.35%, the EC2512 contract rose 12.83%, the EC2602 contract rose 13.93%, and the EC2604 contract rose 13.27% [11]. - Spot Price Performance: In July, most routes saw price increases. Among the 10 routes counted by the Shanghai Shipping Exchange, 4 routes had an increase of over 50%. The SCFIS European route (basic port) rose 9.1% to 2316.56 points, and the SCFIS US - West route (basic port) fell 20.7 to 1284.01 points [22]. - Forward Spot Quotation: The forward quotation has peaked and declined. Different shipping companies have different price trends for different weeks and ship - departure periods [35]. Supply Chain - Overall Contradiction: The overall contradiction is small. The number of container ships passing through the Suez Canal is still at a low level. The container ship diversion pattern continues. The number of container ships passing through the Cape of Good Hope has increased significantly [39]. - Global Supply Chain: The supply - chain efficiency is continuously recovering. In June, the comprehensive punctuality rate of global main routes was 47.58%, approaching the high in 2023. The punctuality rates of Asian - European, Asian - US West, and Asian - US East routes have all reached new highs [49]. - Port Congestion: The overall port congestion pressure is small, but there is local pressure. As of July 31, 2025, the global container ship congestion capacity was 9.96 million TEU, accounting for 31% of the total container ship capacity [56]. Capacity Supply - Global Supply: The container ship delivery pressure remains large. New shipbuilding orders are at a high level. In 2024, shipping companies significantly increased container ship orders. In 2025, it is still a big year for container ship deliveries, and the ship - dismantling pressure is limited [67][72]. - Far East - Europe Route Capacity Supply: The delivery pressure of ultra - large ships on the Far East - Europe route is still large. From 2025 - 2028, there will still be significant supply - side pressure [87][92]. Overseas Demand - Eurozone Economy: The Eurozone economy stabilized in the first quarter. In the second quarter, the GDP increased by 1.2% year - on - year and 0.4% quarter - on - quarter. The inflation is stable, and the market confidence has improved to some extent, but it is still affected by the shadow of tariffs [103]. - Import Demand: In 2025, the European import demand is acceptable. From January to May, the container trade volume between the Far East and Europe increased by 10.6% year - on - year, while China's exports to the US decreased by 10.71% from January to June [105][107]. European Line Strategy - Freight Rate Trend: The top of the freight rate has appeared. Pay attention to the downward slope of the freight rate in the later stage. The capacity in August and September is relatively high, and there are additional vessels in August for Maersk and the OA Alliance [115][122].