能源化工甲醇周度报告-20250803

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term outlook for methanol is weak with oscillations, and it will enter an oscillatory pattern in the medium term. In the short term, a large number of speculative funds have left the market, causing the commodity index to decline from its high, and methanol futures have followed suit. Also, with the strengthening of the basis, the supply of spot goods in the spot market is expected to increase, putting pressure on the supply side. In the medium term, methanol is expected to oscillate. The "anti - involution" policy provides some support for the overall valuation of commodities, and the current fundamentals of methanol are neutral, with the port unloading situation being the key point to watch [4]. - For single - sided trading, it is weak in the short term and oscillatory in the medium term, with an upper pressure range of 2420 - 2430 yuan/ton and a lower support range of 2320 - 2330 yuan/ton [4]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Price and Spread - Charts show the trends of basis, month - spreads (9 - 1, 5 - 9), and the number of warehouse receipts of methanol from 2020 - 2025 [7][8][9][10]. - Domestic and international spot price trends of methanol from 2020 - 2025 are presented, including prices in regions like Inner Mongolia, Henan, and international prices in CFR China, CFR Southeast Asia, and FOB Rotterdam [12][13][14][15][16][17][18]. - Port - inland price spread trends from 2020 - 2025 are shown, such as the spread between Taicang and Hebei, Sichuan - Chongqing, Henan, and Lunan [19][20][21][22]. 3.2 Supply - From 2024 - 2025, China's new methanol production capacity has expanded significantly. In 2024, the total expansion was 400 million tons, and in 2025, it is expected to be 840 million tons. Overseas, the total new capacity in 2024 was 355 million tons, and in 2025, it is expected to be 330 million tons [24]. - A list of domestic methanol plant maintenance from 2019 - 2025 is provided, including information on affected regions, manufacturers, production capacity, raw materials, start and end times [26]. - Charts display the production volume, capacity utilization rate of methanol in China and different regions, and production volume by different production processes (coke oven gas, coal single - alcohol, natural gas, coal co - alcohol) from 2018 - 2025 [27][29][30][32][33]. - Data on methanol imports in China from 2020 - 2025 are presented, including import volume, import cost, arrival volume, and import profit [36][37][38][39]. - Charts show the production cost and profit of methanol by different production processes (coal - based in Inner Mongolia, coke oven gas - based in Hebei, etc.) from 2020 - 2025 [41][42][43][44][45][46][47]. 3.3 Demand - Charts show the capacity utilization rates of methanol downstream industries (methanol - to - olefins, dimethyl ether, formaldehyde, etc.) in China from 2020 - 2025 [49][50][51][53][54]. - Data on the production profit of methanol downstream industries (MTO in East China and Shandong, formaldehyde in Shandong, etc.) from 2020 - 2025 are presented [57][58][60][61][62][63]. - Charts show the procurement volume of methanol by downstream industries (MTO and traditional downstream) in different regions of China from 2020 - 2025 [65][66][67][68][70][71][72][73]. - Data on the raw material inventory of traditional downstream industries in different regions of China from 2020 - 2025 are presented [75][76][77][78]. 3.4 Inventory - Charts show the factory inventory of methanol in China and different regions (East China, Northwest China, Inner Mongolia) from 2018 - 2025 [80][81][82][83]. - Charts show the port inventory of methanol in China and different regions (Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Guangdong) from 2018 - 2025 [86][87][88].