流动性跟踪：月初资金季节性转松或占主导

Group 1: Report Core View - This week, the pressure on the capital market eased, with the central bank increasing support and the government bond issuance scale declining. The capital supply - demand pattern improved, and interest rates dropped. In August, liquidity will be "precisely regulated", with potential disturbances from large - scale certificate of deposit maturities, accelerated government bond issuance, and significant long - and medium - term liquidity maturities [1][22] - Looking at specific time points, disturbances may intensify around the tax payment period in the first and middle of August. Next week, the large - scale expiration of open - market operations is a concern, but the seasonal loosening at the beginning of the month may mitigate the pressure [2] Group 2: Market Data Summary Open Market - From July 28 to August 1, the net open - market injection was 69 billion yuan, a decrease from the previous week. From August 4 to August 8, the open - market operations due to expire amount to 166.32 billion yuan [3] Government Bonds - This week, the net government bond payment was 287.6 billion yuan. Next week, the planned government bond issuance is 578.5 billion yuan, with net payments of 339 billion yuan [37] Money Market - As of August 1, compared with July 25, various capital interest rates declined. The average daily trading volume of inter - bank pledged repurchase was 6716.6 billion yuan, a decrease of 982 billion yuan from July 21 - 25. The net capital outflow of the banking system averaged 3.02 trillion yuan, a decrease of 156.5 billion yuan from last week [5] Inter - bank Certificates of Deposit - From July 28 to August 1, the total issuance of inter - bank certificates of deposit was 386.7 billion yuan, with a net financing of - 16.2 billion yuan. Next week, the maturity scale is 583.8 billion yuan, an increase of 180.9 billion yuan from this week [5][81]