全球资产配置每周聚焦（20250725-20250801）：非农引发美股“衰退交易”，美联储降息分歧加大-20250803

Economic Overview - The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate at 4.25% to 4.5% during the July FOMC meeting, marking the highest number of dissenting votes since the pause in rate cuts began this year[3] - July non-farm payrolls added only 73,000 jobs, significantly below the expected 104,000, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.2%[3] - The downward revision of May and June non-farm payrolls totaled 258,000, indicating a weakening labor market[3] Market Performance - Global equity markets experienced a downturn, with the S&P 500 closing at 6238.01, down 2.36% for the week[8] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield fell by 17 basis points to 4.23%, while the U.S. dollar index remained below 100, indicating a continued weak dollar environment[3][9] - The A-share index saw a majority decline, with the Hang Seng Tech index leading the losses, while only the Argentine index showed slight gains among emerging markets[3][8] Capital Flows - Significant capital inflows were observed in U.S. and European equity markets, while Chinese markets experienced substantial outflows, with domestic investors withdrawing $3.085 billion and foreign investors adding $882 million[3][14] - Over the past week, overseas active funds withdrew $285 million from Chinese markets, while passive funds saw inflows of $1.167 billion[3][14] Valuation Metrics - The ERP for the CSI 300 index rose to 64%, indicating a slight improvement in valuation compared to historical levels[3][12] - The risk-adjusted returns for the CSI 300 increased from 71% to 79%, while the S&P 500's risk-adjusted returns remained stable at 48%[3] Risk Sentiment - Despite significant adjustments in the U.S. stock market, retail investor sentiment remains optimistic, as indicated by a decrease in the put-call ratio from 1.13 to 1.00[3] - In the A-share market, over 50% of stocks are trading below their 30-day moving average, reflecting a shift in sentiment towards caution[3] Economic Data - The U.S. manufacturing PMI showed marginal weakness, while new orders PMI remained below the expansion threshold[3] - The probability of a Fed rate cut in September increased to 80.3%, with a 58.4% chance of a further cut to 3.75%-4.00% in October[3]