利好暂缺叠加基本面走弱，回调蓄势以待政策发力

Group 1 - The report indicates that the Hong Kong market is experiencing a correction phase due to weak economic fundamentals and a lack of positive catalysts, with the Hang Seng Index falling by 3.5% and the Hang Seng Tech Index dropping by 4.9% [1][7]. - China's economic data has shifted from structural divergence to overall weakness, with the July manufacturing PMI declining to 49.3 from 49.7 in June, reflecting weakening demand [1][7]. - The construction PMI has also weakened, influenced by subdued real estate demand and a slowdown in infrastructure investment, with notable declines in property sales in July [1][7]. Group 2 - The report highlights that the rebound in anti-involution sectors was primarily a technical recovery from oversold levels, and structural capacity cuts require sustained policy support [3][9]. - It is expected that targeted measures to stimulate domestic demand and real estate will be introduced, particularly around the time of the Fourth Plenary Session, as the core challenge for China's economy remains deflation [3][9]. - The report suggests that large-cap blue chips may gain greater upside potential once supply and demand policies work in tandem [3][9]. Group 3 - The report notes that the recent rally in Hong Kong and A-share markets was linked to a weaker dollar, with the dollar index's rebound in early July corresponding to a choppy phase for the Hang Seng Index [10][15]. - Following a new trade agreement between the U.S. and Europe, the dollar surged, but the potential for sustained dollar weakness is limited due to the U.S. implementing tariffs and gaining economic benefits from trading partners [10][15]. - Overall market risk appetite is trending lower as global markets enter a correction phase [10][15]. Group 4 - In terms of liquidity, the short selling ratio in Hong Kong rose to 16%, aligning with the two-year average, while southbound capital inflows significantly increased to HKD 59 billion [11][12]. - Major Chinese tech stocks, including Alibaba, Tencent, Xiaomi, and SMIC, saw significant net inflows, with each attracting HKD 2–3 billion [11][12]. - However, as the market declined midweek, leveraged inflows slowed, and equity ETFs shifted from net subscriptions to net redemptions, indicating a more cautious investor sentiment [12][15].