Shenwan Hongyuan Securities·2025-08-03 12:41Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for domestic brands and a recovery for international beauty brands in the Chinese market, indicating potential investment opportunities in the cosmetics and medical beauty sectors [2][3]. Core Insights - The cosmetics and medical beauty sector underperformed the market, with the Shenwan Beauty Care Index declining by 3.3% from July 25 to August 1, 2025, while the Shenwan Cosmetics Index fell by 2.6% [3][4]. - Domestic brands showed strong growth during the off-season, with notable increases such as Han Shu up 58%, Proya up 23%, Marubi up 72%, and Kefu Mei up 28%, indicating resilience in the market [7][17]. - International beauty brands, represented by L'Oréal, are recovering in the Chinese market, with a 3% growth in Q2 2025, supported by promotional events like the 618 shopping festival [7][24]. - The report highlights the success of Lin Qingxuan, a high-end domestic skincare brand, which saw revenue grow from 690 million yuan in 2022 to 1.21 billion yuan in 2024, showcasing the potential of domestic brands [13][14]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The beauty and medical aesthetics sector has shown weaker performance compared to the overall market, with specific indices declining [3][4]. - The report notes that the cosmetics market is transitioning from quantity to quality, with a significant increase in e-commerce sales, which accounted for 47% of cosmetics sales in 2024, up from 22% in 2016 [9][30]. Key Company Highlights - L'Oréal's sales in China for H1 2025 reached approximately 186.19 billion yuan, with a 3% year-on-year increase, indicating a recovery in the Chinese market [24]. - Procter & Gamble reported a record net sales of approximately 604.95 billion yuan for the 2025 fiscal year, with the beauty segment achieving a net sales of approximately 107.66 billion yuan, reflecting a 2% growth [25]. - Lin Qingxuan's product matrix includes 188 SKUs, with a focus on high-quality natural ingredients, and it has established a strong supply chain and distribution network [14][16]. Market Trends - The report emphasizes the growing market for high-end skincare products, with the market size expected to increase from 749 billion yuan in 2019 to 1,144 billion yuan by 2024, indicating a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 13.8% [14][15]. - The domestic brands are gaining market share, with the top ten brands in the skincare market now evenly split between domestic and international brands, reflecting a shift in consumer preferences [30][31].