黑色金属周报合集-20250803

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The policy expectations for anti - involution have eased, and steel prices have slightly declined. The overseas macro situation shows that the US core PCE index in June is 2.8% year - on - year, and there is a tendency to maintain high interest rates. In the domestic macro aspect, the Politburo meeting on July 30th adjusted the anti - involution policy, leading to a drop in the market. In the black产业链, steel demand in the off - season exceeded expectations, steel inventory is low, steel mill profits have expanded, and the decline of hot metal is slow, with poor feedback transmission [6][8][11][12]. - For iron ore, sentiment has declined, and prices are in an oscillatory downward trend. Overseas shipments are recovering, downstream demand remains high, but due to policy disappointment and weak macro data, trading sentiment has cooled [78][80]. - For coking coal and coke, the first round of coke price increases has started, and the trend is oscillating strongly. Supply has increased, demand sentiment has weakened, inventory transfer is smooth, and price fluctuations may be amplified due to position - limit restrictions [130]. - For ferroalloys, market sentiment has cooled, and trading has returned to fundamentals. No detailed information is provided in the text. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Steel 3.1.1 General Situation of Steel - Policy expectations for anti - involution have eased, and steel prices have slightly declined. The overseas macro environment tends to maintain high interest rates, and domestic policy adjustments have affected the market. In the black产业链, demand in the off - season exceeded expectations, and the negative feedback mechanism is not working well [6][8][12]. 3.1.2 Rebar - Price: Last week, the Shanghai rebar spot price was 3360 (-70) yuan/ton, the main futures price was 3203 (-153) yuan/ton, the basis of the main contract was 157 (-83) yuan/ton, and the 10 - 01 spread was - 54 (-11) yuan/ton [22]. - Demand: New home sales remain low, indicating weak market confidence, while second - hand home sales remain high, showing rigid demand. Land transaction area is also low. In the off - season, indicators such as cement shipments have declined seasonally [26][28]. - Inventory: Steel inventory is at a low level and has not increased, indicating less pressure on the industrial chain [30]. - Profit: Due to the adjustment of anti - involution policy expectations, rebar production profits have decreased [38]. 3.1.3 Hot - Rolled Coil - Price: Last week, the Shanghai hot - rolled coil spot price was 3410 (-90) yuan/ton, the main futures price was 3401 (-106) yuan/ton, the basis of the main contract was 9 (+16) yuan/ton, and the 10 - 01 spread was - 2 (+9) yuan/ton [44]. - Demand: Demand has weakened month - on - month. The US has imposed tariffs on steel - made household appliances, and the white - goods production is in the off - season. The domestic - foreign price spread has converged, and the export window has closed [49][50]. - Inventory: In the off - season, demand slightly exceeded expectations, and the inventory accumulation of hot - rolled coils has slowed down [52]. - Production: Hot - rolled coil production has declined [55]. - Profit: Due to the adjustment of anti - involution policy expectations, hot - rolled coil production profits have decreased [57]. 3.2 Iron Ore 3.2.1 General Situation of Iron Ore - Sentiment has declined, and prices are in an oscillatory downward trend. Overseas shipments are recovering, downstream demand remains high, but due to policy disappointment and weak macro data, trading sentiment has cooled [78][80]. 3.2.2 Supply - Global iron ore shipments are 3200.9 million tons, with an increase of 181.9 million tons compared to the same period last year. Australian shipments are 1793.5 million tons, an increase of 222.3 million tons; Brazilian shipments are 884.3 million tons, a decrease of 23.5 million tons. The increase in Australian shipments is mainly contributed by Fortescue Metals Group [79]. - Domestic mine production in North China has declined significantly recently [102]. 3.2.3 Demand - Downstream hot metal production has declined slightly, but the output of five major steel products is still much higher than the same period last year. The arrival of scrap steel has increased, but the scrap - iron price spread is still narrowing, though at a slower pace [105][106]. 3.2.4 Inventory - The port inventory of imported iron ore at 45 ports is 13657.9 million tons, a decrease of 132.5 million tons week - on - week and 1386.1 million tons year - on - year. The port inventory inflection point has not arrived yet. Due to production increase demand and a decline in Indian shipments, pellet inventory is continuously decreasing [79][110][112]. 3.2.5 Price - The main 09 contract price is oscillating weakly, closing at 783.0 yuan/ton, with a position of 410,000 hands (a decrease of 119,000 hands). The average daily trading volume is 369,000 hands, a decrease of 150,000 hands week - on - week. Spot prices have followed the futures market and reached a peak and then declined [82][86]. 3.3 Coking Coal and Coke 3.3.1 General Situation of Coking Coal and Coke - The first round of coke price increases has started, and the trend is oscillating strongly. Supply has increased, demand sentiment has weakened, inventory transfer is smooth, and price fluctuations may be amplified due to position - limit restrictions [130]. 3.3.2 Supply - This week, the output of sample coal mines has increased by 10.66 million tons to 1236.27 million tons, and the capacity utilization rate has increased by 0.74% to 86.01%. The customs clearance of imported Mongolian coal has increased rapidly, and the Ganqimaodu port has maintained over 1000 vehicles per day [130]. 3.3.3 Demand - Affected by the continuous decline of the futures market, downstream and speculative trading is relatively cautious, and the prices of high - priced resources in online auctions have started to decline [130]. 3.3.4 Inventory - Coal mine inventory is generally at a low level, and the origin has shown inventory reduction for 7 consecutive weeks. This week, the sample coal mine's raw coal inventory decreased by 17.37 million tons to 226.85 million tons, and the clean coal inventory decreased by 22.72 million tons to 192.97 million tons [130].