镍：多空博弈加剧，镍价窄幅震荡不锈钢：宏观淡化回归基本面，钢价低位震荡运行

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - For nickel, the multi - empty game intensifies, and the nickel price fluctuates narrowly. The fundamental contradiction is not prominent, and the disk margin follows the macro - sentiment change [4]. - For stainless steel, the macro factor fades, and it returns to the fundamentals. The steel price fluctuates at a low level [5]. - For industrial silicon, pay attention to the resumption progress of upstream factories. The market is trading the upstream resumption expectation, and the disk has short - term fluctuations [27][32]. - For polysilicon, it may have a short - term correction, and it is recommended to hold positions cautiously. The policy market dominates, but there is still a short - term correction drive [27][33]. - For lithium carbonate, the'movement - style anti - involution' cools down. Pay attention to the progress of the approval of mining certificates in Jiangxi. The price is under pressure, and the unilateral price will fluctuate widely [61][64]. - For palm oil, the macro - sentiment fades, and it may have a short - term pullback. The market is trading the de - stocking market in the second half of the year, but the current price may not match the fundamentals [86][87]. - For soybean oil, it lacks effective driving forces. Pay attention to the results of the China - US negotiations [86]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Nickel and Stainless Steel - Fundamentals - Nickel: The influence of the macro - sentiment on the nickel market is marginal, and the fundamentals determine the elasticity. The contradiction at the ore end fades, and the smelting end logic leads to a narrow - range oscillation judgment. The global refined nickel inventory increases moderately, and the short - term nickel price has a limited decline but is suppressed above [4]. - Stainless steel: The macro factor fades, and it returns to the fundamentals. The 8 - month production schedule shows a marginal increase, and the nickel - iron price is revised upwards. The inventory has decreased moderately, but it is still higher than last year [5]. - Inventory Changes - Nickel: The Chinese refined nickel social inventory decreases, the LME nickel inventory increases, the nickel - iron inventory has high - level destocking, and the Chinese port nickel - ore inventory increases [6][7][8]. - Stainless steel: The national stainless - steel social total inventory decreases weekly, with different trends in cold - rolled and hot - rolled inventories [8]. - Market News - There are news about the potential export suspension of nickel from Canada to the US, the trial production of a nickel - iron project in Indonesia, environmental violations in an Indonesian industrial park, and the adjustment of the mining quota period in Indonesia [9]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Price Trends - Industrial silicon: The futures price shows a weak oscillation, and the spot price drops. The Xinjiang 99 - silicon and Inner Mongolia 99 - silicon prices decline [27]. - Polysilicon: The futures price rises and then falls, and the spot trading is weak [27]. - Supply and Demand Fundamentals - Industrial silicon: The supply side has a marginal increase in production, and the overall industry inventory continues to be destocked. The demand side has stable short - term demand [28][29]. - Polysilicon: The supply side has an increase in short - term production, and the upstream inventory is destocked. The demand side has a slight increase in silicon wafer production, but the price transmission is not smooth [29][31]. - 后市观点 - Industrial silicon: Pay attention to the resumption rhythm of upstream factories. The increase in futures warehouse receipts may affect the market sentiment [32]. - Polysilicon: The policy market dominates, but there is a short - term correction drive. Pay attention to the registration of futures warehouse receipts [33]. Lithium Carbonate - Price Trends - The futures contract price drops significantly, and the spot price also decreases. The basis and the spread between contracts change [61]. - Supply and Demand Fundamentals - Supply: The lithium concentrate price drops, and the production of lithium carbonate decreases, mainly due to the reduction of mica and salt - lake enterprises [62]. - Demand: The downstream procurement willingness increases, but the absolute demand is still lower than expected [62]. - Inventory: The total social inventory of lithium carbonate decreases, with upstream destocking and downstream inventory accumulation [63]. - 后市观点 - The'movement - style anti - involution' expectation is broken, and the price is under pressure. Pay attention to the progress of the approval of mining certificates in Jiangxi [64]. Palm Oil and Soybean Oil - Last Week's Views and Logic - Palm oil: The domestic macro - sentiment pushes the price to a three - year high, but the lack of downstream demand makes it difficult to continue rising [86]. - Soybean oil: The large number of export orders stimulates trading enthusiasm, and the soybean - palm oil price spread narrows [86]. - This Week's Views and Logic - Palm oil: The MPOB report's negative impact is digested, and the market trades the de - stocking market. Malaysia may continue to accumulate inventory in July, and Indonesia's production recovery may be lower than expected. The international oil market may have a systemic upward trend, and the palm oil price is relatively resistant to decline [87]. - Soybean oil: It lacks effective driving forces, and it is necessary to pay attention to the results of the China - US negotiations [86].