Changjiang Securities·2025-08-03 13:13Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the green electricity industry [8] Core Insights - The price of green certificates has shown a significant recovery, with the trading price for 2025 electricity corresponding to green certificates reaching 6.48 yuan per certificate, a month-on-month increase of 31.99% [2][11] - The issuance of green certificates remains high, with 278 million certificates issued in June, a month-on-month increase of 29.33%, indicating a strong supply [6] - The demand for green electricity is expected to increase due to mandatory assessments for high-energy-consuming industries, which will further support the price recovery of green certificates [2][11] Summary by Sections Green Certificate Issuance and Trading - In June, 278 million green certificates were issued, with 196 million being tradable, accounting for 70.64% of the total [6] - The total number of tradable green certificates issued from January to June 2025 reached 958 million [6] - The average trading price of green certificates in June was 3.40 yuan per certificate, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 24.77% [11] Market Dynamics - The report highlights a potential imbalance in supply and demand for green certificates, with expectations of a decrease in supply due to policy changes [2][11] - The green electricity industry is under long-term pressure from market pricing, but the recovery in green certificate prices is seen as a key catalyst for restoring the narrative of public utilities and growth [2][11] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on quality transformation power operators such as Huaneng International, Huadian International, and China Power, as well as large hydropower companies like Yangtze Power and Guotou Power [11][15][17] - It also recommends investing in renewable energy companies like Longyuan Power and China Nuclear Power, which are expected to benefit from policy changes and market dynamics [11][17][18]