海外观察：美国2025年7月非农数据，美国就业加速降温，降息转折是否显现？

Employment Data Summary - In July 2025, the U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by 73,000, significantly below the expected 104,000, with the previous month's figure revised down from 147,000 to 14,000, resulting in a total downward revision of 253,000 for May and June[6][7]. - The unemployment rate rose from 4.1% to 4.2%, while the U6 unemployment rate increased by 0.2 percentage points to 7.9%[6][8]. - Labor force participation rate declined for four consecutive months, dropping by 0.1 percentage points to 62.2%[5][8]. Wage Growth Insights - Private sector hourly wage growth increased from 0.2% to 0.3% month-over-month, with service sector wages rising from 0.2% to 0.4%[12]. - Retail sector hourly wage growth surged from 0.2% to 1.2%, attributed to increased hiring demand during the inventory replenishment cycle and seasonal summer effects[12]. Economic Implications - The significant downward revisions in employment data for May and June have eroded market confidence in U.S. economic data, shifting perceptions from resilient job growth to stagnation[7]. - The mixed signals of low job growth and high inflation present a dilemma for the Federal Reserve, complicating monetary policy decisions[9][12]. - Market expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut in September rose sharply from 43.2% to 80.3% following the release of the July employment data[9].