宏观量化经济指数周报：债券增值税或推动资金增配实体经济资产-20250803

Economic Indicators - The weekly ECI supply index is at 50.07%, down 0.03 percentage points from last week, while the demand index is at 49.92%, down 0.01 percentage points[1] - In July, the ECI supply index averaged 50.11%, down 0.05 percentage points from June, and the demand index averaged 49.92%, down 0.01 percentage points[1] - The real estate market saw a 18.6% year-on-year decline in sales area for new homes in 30 major cities, totaling 6.49 million square meters in July[1] Bond Market and Tax Adjustments - The ELI index is at -0.72%, up 0.09 percentage points from last week, indicating a slight recovery in liquidity for the real economy[1] - The adjustment of the bond value-added tax may lead to increased allocation of funds to non-financial corporate bonds and other real economy assets[1] - The People's Bank of China plans to expand the issuance of technology innovation bonds in the third quarter, focusing on structural monetary policy tools[1] Market Trends and Risks - The export index remains resilient, with port cargo throughput maintaining high levels, although there are concerns about the impact of new tariffs on re-export trade[1] - The report highlights risks including uncertainties in U.S. tariff policies and the sustainability of improvements in the real estate market[1]