行情回归基本面，转入偏弱震荡

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The polypropylene market has returned to the fundamental level and entered a weak and volatile phase. The overall supply is relatively sufficient, the downstream replenishment willingness has declined, and the production profit is expected to continue to weaken. It is recommended to adopt a weak and volatile trading idea and beware of callback risks [1][11] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Recent Market Main Contradictions - Not provided in the given content 3.2 Polypropylene Supply and Demand Situation Supply - This week's production was 773,300 tons, a decrease of 300 tons compared with last week, in line with expectations. There were not many new maintenance devices, and the maintenance losses decreased by 1,700 tons to 160,900 tons. In the next two weeks, device maintenance will decrease, and production may increase slightly. The import volume remained at 75,000 tons per week, and the export volume was 37,500 tons per week. In June, exports were 235,300 tons, and imports were 243,300 tons, in line with expectations [6] - The upstream overall operating rate increased slightly [6] Demand - This week's apparent demand was 824,700 tons, a week-on-week increase of 4.68%. The domestic apparent demand improved slightly. Next week, the apparent demand is expected to be around 820,000 tons according to the seasonality [6] - The downstream average operating rate was not provided in the content, and the downstream replenishment willingness has declined. The downstream had replenished a large amount of inventory previously and is currently digesting the inventory [11] Inventory - This week, there was a slight destocking, with the total inventory decreasing by 13,900 tons to 800,500 tons. Next week, it is expected to continue to destock slightly [6] - The upstream inventory decreased by 15,800 tons to 564,800 tons, including a decrease of 16,000 tons in the two - oil inventory to 278,200 tons; the coal - chemical inventory increased by 2,700 tons to 101,100 tons; the PDH inventory decreased by 1,100 tons to 74,500 tons; the refinery inventory decreased by 1,400 tons to 111,000 tons; and the拉丝 inventory decreased by 33,300 tons to 151,200 tons [6] - The mid - stream inventory increased slightly, with the port inventory increasing by 1,900 tons to 235,700 tons (the port sub - inventory decreased by 4,800 tons to 62,400 tons), and the trader inventory increasing by 6,700 tons to 173,300 tons [6] 3.3 Polypropylene Basis and Spread Basis - The overall basis showed a volatile and strengthening trend, but the basis trading opportunities were limited. The East China basis increased by 40 points to - 40; the North China basis increased by 70 points to - 50; the South China basis increased by 80 points to 20 [9] Inter - month Spread - The inter - month spread was volatile and weakening. The 1 - 5 inter - month spread decreased by 10 points to - 1, the 5 - 9 inter - month spread increased by 20 points to 26, and the 9 - 1 inter - month spread decreased by 10 points to - 25 [9] Variety Spread - The copolymer -拉丝 spread increased by 80 points to 90, the injection - molding -拉丝 spread remained unchanged at 40, and the pellet - powder spread in North China remained unchanged at 200, while the pellet - powder spread in East China decreased by 60 points to 130 [9] Disk Spread - The PP - 3MA disk spread showed a strengthening trend. The 01 contract increased by 193 points to - 332, the 05 contract increased by 95 points to - 190, and the 09 contract increased by 255 points to - 81. The long - PP and short - MA strategy has been recommended to take profits and exit the market, and there are no suitable opportunities in the short term [9] - The LL - PP disk spread was volatile this week and is expected to strengthen slightly later. The 01 contract decreased by 8 points to 260, the 05 contract decreased by 14 points to 252, and the 09 contract decreased by 16 points to 219 [9] 3.4 Summary and Outlook Upper, Middle, and Lower Reaches Views - The upstream is in the peak maintenance period, but the overall supply is still relatively sufficient, with a focus on active shipment [11] - The mid - stream shipment situation has slightly deteriorated. After the disk price declined, some futures - cash arbitrageurs had shipment opportunities [11] - The downstream replenishment willingness has declined as the downstream had replenished a large amount of inventory previously and is currently digesting the inventory [11] Strategies - For the cross - variety strategy, the long - PP and short - MA spread strategy has been recommended to take profits and exit the market [11] - For the unilateral strategy, adopt a weak and volatile trading idea and beware of callback risks [11] - For the options strategy, adopt the strategy of selling call options [11]