供应持续增量，下游需求跟进偏缓

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral - Inter - period: PL01 - 02 inter - period reverse spread - Inter - variety: None [3] Core Viewpoints - The supply of propylene is expected to increase, with the restart of Tianjin Bohua's PDH unit in early August and the expected release of new production capacity. The demand has staged support due to the restart of some polypropylene and octanol plants, but its sustainability is questionable during the traditional off - season. The rebound in oil prices provides short - term cost support, but prices are mainly under pressure due to supply - demand imbalances [1][2] Summary by Directory Propylene Basis Structure - Propylene prices are in a low - level weak oscillation, showing a negative basis pattern [14] Propylene Monthly Output - In July, China's propylene plant output reached 5.1084 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 123,400 tons (2.5%) and a year - on - year increase of 13.0%. The output remains at a high level in the same period [22] Propylene Production Profit and Operating Rate - The profits of propylene production by different processes decreased month - on - month. The production profit of PDH - made propylene was in the red, and the loss of methanol - to - propylene profitability deepened. In July, the overall propylene capacity utilization rate was 71.6%, with a narrow month - on - month fluctuation [24] Propylene Outer - Market Spread and Import - Export - In June, China's propylene imports increased month - on - month, driven by imports from Japan, South Korea, and increased supply from Southeast Asia. Japan and South Korea are still the traditional major import sources. In June, China's propylene imports were 253,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 28%. From January to June 2025, the cumulative imports were 1.0669 million tons [39] Propylene Downstream Operating Rate and Downstream Profit - The overall downstream operating rate increased limitedly. End - users mainly purchased at low prices, and demand resilience was still insufficient. The restart of some polypropylene and octanol plants provided staged demand support, but its sustainability is questionable during the traditional off - season. In terms of downstream profits, the profit of the propylene oxide industry rebounded significantly, while the profit of the n - butanol industry decreased month - on - month [53] Propylene Inventory - Propylene inventory in factories continued to rise, being higher year - on - year. The inventory of PP powder, the main downstream consumer, declined from a high level [75]