超长债周报：国债利息将收税，超长债继续放量-20250803

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Last week, the bond market fluctuated significantly and rebounded slightly. The Politburo meeting mentioned "promoting capacity governance in key industries", the July PMI was only 49.3, and the announcement of a 6% VAT on the interest of newly issued government bonds starting from August 8th triggered a wave of bond buying [1][4][12][39]. - As of August 1, the spread between the 30 - year government bond and the 10 - year government bond was 24BP, at a historically low level. The 6 - month domestic GDP growth rate was about 5.2%, but the growth rates of social consumption and investment sub - items declined significantly, and there was still a risk of deflation. The short - term market panic has passed, but the term spread protection is limited [2][13]. - As of August 1, the spread between the 20 - year CDB bond and the 20 - year government bond was 4BP, at a historically extremely low level. Similar to the 30 - year government bond situation, the short - term market panic has passed, but the spread protection is limited [3][14]. Summary by Directory Weekly Review Ultra - long Bond Review - The bond market fluctuated significantly and rebounded slightly last week. The Politburo meeting's statement was more restrained, the July PMI was low, and the VAT announcement on bond interest triggered a bond - buying wave. The trading activity of ultra - long bonds increased slightly, the term spread remained flat, and the variety spread widened [1][4][12]. Ultra - long Bond Investment Outlook - 30 - year Government Bond: The spread between the 30 - year government bond and the 10 - year government bond was at a low level. The domestic economy still faced downward pressure, and the short - term market panic has passed, but the term spread protection was limited [2][13]. - 20 - year CDB Bond: The spread between the 20 - year CDB bond and the 20 - year government bond was at an extremely low level. Similar to the 30 - year government bond, the short - term market panic has passed, but the variety spread protection was limited [3][14]. Ultra - long Bond Basic Overview - The balance of outstanding ultra - long bonds exceeded 22.8 trillion. As of July 31, the total amount of ultra - long bonds with a remaining term of more than 14 years was 228,873 billion, accounting for 14.7% of the total bond balance. Local government bonds and government bonds were the main varieties, and the 30 - year variety had the highest proportion [15]. Primary Market Weekly Issuance - Last week, the issuance volume of ultra - long bonds decreased significantly. A total of 1,722 billion yuan of ultra - long bonds were issued. By variety, government bonds were 350 billion, local government bonds were 1,262 billion, etc. By term, 15 - year bonds were 263 billion, 20 - year bonds were 264 billion, etc. [20]. This Week's Pending Issuance - The announced issuance plan for ultra - long bonds this week is 1,380 billion, including 820 billion for ultra - long government bonds and 560 billion for ultra - long local government bonds [26]. Secondary Market Trading Volume - Last week, the trading of ultra - long bonds was quite active. The trading volume was 14,817 billion, accounting for 16.0% of the total bond trading volume. The trading activity increased slightly compared with the previous week [28]. Yield - The bond market fluctuated significantly and rebounded slightly last week. Yields of government bonds, CDB bonds, local bonds, and railway bonds of different terms changed to varying degrees. For example, the 30 - year government bond yield changed by - 2BP to 1.95% [39]. Spread Analysis - Term Spread: The term spread of ultra - long bonds remained flat last week, and the absolute level was low. The spread between the 30 - year and 10 - year government bonds was 24BP, unchanged from the previous week [48]. - Variety Spread: The variety spread of ultra - long bonds widened last week, and the absolute level was low. The spreads between the 20 - year CDB bond and the government bond, and between the 20 - year railway bond and the government bond changed by 2BP and 6BP respectively [53]. 30 - year Government Bond Futures - Last week, the main 30 - year government bond futures contract TL2509 closed at 119.04 yuan, an increase of 0.92%. The trading volume was 78.30 million lots, and the open interest was 16.06 million lots, both increasing slightly compared with the previous week [55].