Changjiang Securities·2025-08-03 14:15Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the real estate industry [11] Core Insights - The policy goal of stabilizing the market has somewhat boosted market expectations, but since April, marginal downward pressure has increased, leading to a higher probability of policy easing. Future easing is merely a matter of timing [4][8] - The rapid decline in industry volume and price may have already passed, with structural highlights in core areas and quality properties. Current stock positions are not far from the bottom, providing room for a rebound in cyclical sectors [4] - Emphasis is placed on leading real estate companies with low inventory, good locations, and strong product capabilities, as well as leading brokerage firms, commercial real estate, and state-owned property management companies with stable cash flows [4] Market Performance - The Yangtze River Real Estate Index decreased by 2.76% this week, with an excess return of -1.01% relative to the CSI 300, ranking 24th out of 32 industries. Year-to-date, the index is down 0.45%, with an excess return of -3.50%, ranking 29th [5][14] - The real estate sector performed poorly this week, with declines primarily in development and property management stocks, while rental stocks showed mixed results [5] Policy Developments - The Central Political Bureau meeting emphasized the need to prevent and resolve risks in key areas and to conduct urban renewal with high quality. Local governments are encouraged to manage debt risks and enhance the attractiveness of domestic capital markets [6][18] - Shanghai is accelerating the renovation of "two old and one village," aiming to complete the renovation of approximately 380,000 square meters of old housing this year [6][18] Sales Data - New home and second-hand home registrations in sample cities remain at low levels. The new home transaction area in 37 cities decreased by 19.1% year-on-year, while second-hand home transactions decreased by 2.3% [7][20] - Year-to-date, the cumulative transaction area for new homes in 37 cities is down 4.9%, while second-hand homes are up 15.3% [7][20]