宏观国内周报：出口增长反弹，商品涨势有所降温-20250803

Economic Activity - July export growth showed resilience with a year-on-year increase, while construction activity remained weak due to adverse weather conditions and policy adjustments[2] - Domestic passenger car sales fell significantly by 40.7% year-on-year during July 21-27, indicating a potential impact from high base effects[3] - The manufacturing PMI decreased from 49.7% in June to 49.3% in July, suggesting a contraction in manufacturing activity[8] Commodity Prices - Brent crude oil prices rose by 1.8% week-on-week to $69.7 per barrel, while COMEX gold prices increased by 2.3% to $3,360 per ounce[5] - Domestic copper and rebar prices fell by 1.3% and 3.1% respectively, indicating a general retreat in commodity prices[5] Real Estate Market - New home transaction area in 44 cities saw a year-on-year decline of 23.2%, worsening from a previous drop of 19.6%[60] - In first-tier cities, new home transaction areas decreased by 21.6% year-on-year, with significant declines in major cities like Beijing and Shanghai[60] - The average land transaction price in 100 cities increased by 91.8% week-on-week and 40.9% year-on-year, reflecting a divergence in market dynamics[60] Financial Market - Interbank liquidity tightened, with the RMB/USD exchange rate decreasing by 0.59% week-on-week[6] - The net issuance of government bonds rose to 672.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 66.8%[6]