中观数据周报：政治局会议落地，价格走势分化-20250803

Policy Insights - The Central Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China decided to hold the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee in October 2025, emphasizing the need for sustained macroeconomic policy efforts[7] - A new childcare subsidy policy will provide 3,600 yuan per year for each child until the age of three, starting from January 1, 2025[17] Economic Performance - The construction sector shows signs of stabilization, with a slight decrease in funding availability for construction projects, while asphalt construction rates have increased[6] - New home sales in 30 cities have rebounded slightly but remain below last year's levels, while second-hand home sales have declined in nine cities[6] Market Trends - Upstream prices are showing mixed trends, with crude oil prices rising and coal prices remaining stable, while copper and rebar prices have decreased due to market adjustments[8] - Cement prices continue to decline, with a rising inventory-to-capacity ratio and reduced shipping rates[51] Consumer Behavior - Automobile sales are experiencing steady growth, although the year-on-year growth rate for wholesale and retail sales has decreased due to last year's high base[6] - Public transportation activity has slightly increased but remains above last year's levels, while flight execution rates have shown seasonal fluctuations[6] Risks - Potential risks include unexpected changes in domestic economic policies and global geopolitical conflicts, which could impact market stability[10]