开源证券晨会纪要-20250803

Macro Economic Insights - The US labor market is showing signs of weakness, with July non-farm employment data revealing an increase of only 73,000 jobs, significantly below market expectations of 104,000 [3][4] - The unemployment rate stands at 4.2%, aligning with market expectations, while average hourly earnings have increased by 3.9% year-on-year, exceeding forecasts [3][4][5] - The labor force participation rate is approximately 62.2%, indicating a decline in participation alongside a rising unemployment rate, suggesting a cooling labor market [5][6] Industry Trends - The manufacturing sector is experiencing a downturn, with PMI production dropping by 0.5 percentage points to 50.5%, and new orders and export orders also declining [11][13] - The "anti-involution" trend is positively impacting commodity prices, with expectations for a rebound in July PPI [11][13] - The construction industry is facing a slowdown in infrastructure investment, while the service sector remains relatively stable, buoyed by summer travel and consumption [14] Investment Strategies - The report emphasizes the importance of maintaining a self-driven investment approach, focusing on technology as a primary sector for growth [16][18] - The "anti-involution" theme is expected to drive cyclical and counter-cyclical trades, particularly in PPI recovery [19] - The TMT sector is highlighted as a key area for investment, with expectations for a rebound in semiconductor cycles and AI-driven demand [20][21] Company-Specific Insights - The industrial X-ray inspection market is poised for structural growth, driven by increasing demand in electronics and lithium battery sectors [52][53] - The first public REIT for natural gas power generation by a central enterprise has been successfully launched, indicating a positive trend for REITs in the energy sector [57][59] - The biodegradable food packaging market is projected to grow significantly, driven by increasing demand and supportive policies against plastic waste [55]