Changjiang Securities·2025-08-03 23:30Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the express delivery industry [11] Core Insights - The express delivery industry, although not listed among the top ten "anti-involution" sectors, has shown strong stock performance and exceeded expectations in July, reflecting a "latecomer advantage" [2][6] - The industry's characteristics of "stabilizing employment," "stabilizing growth," and "price increase acceptance" drive its performance [2][6] Summary by Sections Stabilizing Employment - The express delivery sector is a significant reservoir for employment, with over 4 million direct workers in 2024, highlighting its role in the flexible employment market [19][21] - The low social security coverage for delivery workers emphasizes the importance of the sector in stabilizing employment [22] Stabilizing Growth - The profitability of express delivery headquarters is under pressure, with average monthly prices dropping to around 2 yuan, leading to intensified price competition [25][26] - The report notes that the pressure on franchise operators is at historical highs, with some facing cash flow issues, necessitating a stable operational environment [26] Price Increase Acceptance - The average cost rate for online shopping express delivery is approximately 5.2%, indicating a relatively high acceptance of price increases among e-commerce customers [34][39] - The report suggests that the "anti-involution" measures could positively impact the quality of service and operational stability in the express delivery industry [34]