策略周报：进二退一，回归科技主线-20250804

Core Insights - The report emphasizes a focus on technology growth opportunities in the market, indicating a shift towards structural investment rather than index performance [1][10] - The AI industry is highlighted as a key area for investment, with expectations of a rebound driven by domestic computing power improvements and software application advancements [1][29] - The report notes a significant increase in the pharmaceutical sector, particularly in innovative drugs, with a notable 21% increase from July 1 to August 1 [1][29] Market Overview - The market is currently experiencing a light index but heavy structural focus, with a controlled risk of decline due to weak recovery in the fundamental backdrop [1][10] - The political bureau meeting has shifted focus towards the implementation of existing policies rather than new initiatives, indicating a stable but cautious economic outlook [1][9] - The market sentiment has recovered to near yearly highs, suggesting a potential for a phase of expectation fulfillment in the short term [1][10] Industry Insights - The top ten industries recommended for August include light industry manufacturing, non-bank financials, beauty care, electronics, pharmaceutical biology, power equipment, basic chemicals, communications, defense, and social services [1][29] - The defense and military industry is expected to receive continuous catalysts leading up to the upcoming military parade, with historical patterns suggesting a "high before the event" trading behavior [1][26] - The report highlights the importance of monitoring the stock price fluctuations in the military industry, especially in light of historical trends observed during previous military parades [1][26] Fund Flow Analysis - The report indicates a significant net sell-off in the A-share market, with a net outflow of 192.79 billion yuan, marking the largest weekly sell-off in four months [1][40] - The pharmaceutical sector saw the highest net inflow of 10.746 billion yuan, while the largest outflows were from non-bank financials and power equipment [1][40] - The report notes a continued net subscription in stock ETFs, primarily focused on Hong Kong stocks, indicating a shift in investor interest [1][40]