南华镍、不锈钢周报-20250804

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The nickel and stainless steel futures market showed a weak and volatile trend this week, mainly driven by the weakening sentiment in the broader market. The anti - involution sentiment declined, and factors such as the US dollar index, US copper tariffs, and China - US economic and trade talks temporarily suppressed the market. - The price of nickel ore from the Philippines has loosened due to improved rainfall in major mining areas and a seasonal increase in domestic nickel ore arrivals. In Indonesia, the first - phase nickel ore benchmark price in August has increased, but the improvement in premium is limited. - The price of nickel sulfate remained firm this week. It is currently the restocking period for some precursor factories, and nickel salt factories have a certain price - holding sentiment. - The price of ferronickel continued to correct this week. If ferronickel prices continue to rise, the supply of ice - nickel and pure nickel is expected to decrease, which will strongly support the price increase of ferronickel. - The stainless steel market also showed a weak and volatile trend, but the decline was limited. The cost support of ferronickel has strengthened, and the Yarlung Zangbo River Hydropower Station is expected to boost the demand for high - end stainless steel. Stainless steel has been continuously destocked, and spot transactions have improved. Some steel mills may increase production in August. - It is expected that nickel will fluctuate in the range of [118,000 - 126,000] yuan, and stainless steel will fluctuate in the range of [12,500 - 13,100] yuan [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Disk Review - The main contract of Shanghai nickel fluctuated weakly, closing at 119,770 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,850 yuan or 1.52% from the previous week. The main contract of stainless steel closed at 12,840 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous week [2][4][6]. 3.2. Industrial Performance - Spot Market: The price of Jinchuan nickel was 121,850 yuan/ton, with a premium of 2,250 yuan/ton. The average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate was 27,370 yuan/ton, and the profit margin of producing nickel sulfate from MHP was adjusted to 0%. The average ex - factory price of 304/2B cut - edge stainless steel was 12,700 yuan/ton, and the profit margin of 304 stainless steel cold - rolling decreased to about - 4.74% [2]. - Inventory: The inventory of pure nickel on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 25,750 tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 209,082 tons. The social inventory of stainless steel was 982,700 tons, and the inventory of ferronickel was 33,415 tons. The ex - factory price of 8% - 12% high - nickel pig iron was adjusted to 912.5 yuan/nickel point [2]. 3.3. Core Logic - Nickel: Affected by the broader market sentiment, the nickel market was under pressure. The improvement in the supply of Philippine nickel ore and the increase in the Indonesian nickel ore benchmark price had different impacts on the market. The price of nickel sulfate was firm, and the trend of ferronickel was crucial for the supply of pure nickel [3]. - Stainless Steel: Although the market was weak, multiple factors limited the decline. The cost support of ferronickel, the expected increase in demand from the hydropower station, and the destocking trend provided some support. The production plans of steel mills in August need to be closely monitored [3]. 3.4. Market Data - Nickel Futures: The main contract of Shanghai nickel and other contracts showed a decline in price, with a decrease in trading volume and a change in open interest and basis [4][5]. - Stainless Steel Futures: The main contract of stainless steel remained stable, while other contracts had slight fluctuations. Trading volume and open interest decreased, and the basis remained unchanged [6]. - Nickel Spot: The prices of various nickel products such as Jinchuan nickel, imported nickel, and electrolytic nickel all declined [7]. - Nickel Industry Inventory: Domestic social inventory decreased, LME nickel inventory increased, stainless steel social inventory decreased slightly, and ferronickel inventory increased [8].