研究所晨会观点精萃-20250804

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Globally, the US non - farm payroll data was significantly revised downward, leading to a sharp decline in global risk appetite. Domestically, the economic growth slowed in July, and although policies such as the national parenting subsidy system were introduced and the tariff truce period was extended, the domestic risk appetite also decreased due to under - expected economic growth and overseas negative impacts [3][4]. - Different asset classes have different trends. Stocks and bonds are expected to fluctuate and correct in the short term; most commodities are in a state of short - term shock, with different degrees of caution required for operation [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro - finance - Overseas: The US added 73,000 non - farm jobs in July, far lower than the expected 110,000, and the previous two months were revised down by 258,000 jobs. Traders fully priced in two Fed rate cuts by the end of the year, and the US imposed new tariffs on dozens of trading partners, causing a sharp decline in global risk appetite [3]. - Domestic: China's manufacturing PMI in July was 49.3%, a 0.4 - percentage - point decrease from the previous month. The country introduced a national parenting subsidy system, and the China - US tariff truce period was extended by 90 days. However, due to under - expected economic growth and overseas negative impacts, domestic risk appetite decreased [3][4]. - Asset Performance: Stocks are expected to fluctuate and correct in the short term, with cautious long - positions. Bonds are expected to fluctuate and correct at high levels, with cautious observation. Among commodities, black metals have increased short - term volatility, non - ferrous metals are in short - term shock, energy and chemicals are in short - term shock, and precious metals are in short - term high - level shock, with cautious long - positions [3]. Stock Index - The domestic stock market declined slightly due to the drag of sectors such as military industry, insurance, and metals. The economic growth slowed in July, and although policies were introduced and the tariff truce period was extended, the domestic risk appetite decreased. The short - term macro - upward driving force weakened, and attention should be paid to the progress of China - US trade negotiations and the implementation of domestic incremental policies. Short - term cautious observation is recommended [4]. Precious Metals - On Friday, precious metals had an unexpected reversal, with the core driver shifting to the resonance of "safe - haven + rate - cut expectations". The non - farm data was extremely poor, the Fed rate - cut probability increased significantly, and the US economy showed stagflation characteristics. Gold rebounded significantly, and silver's rise was expected to lag behind gold, with the gold - silver ratio likely to continue rising [5]. Black Metals - Steel: The domestic steel futures and spot markets continued to be weak, with low trading volumes. The reality demand continued to weaken, the inventory of five major steel products increased, and the apparent consumption decreased. The supply remained high, but there was a high probability of negative feedback in the industrial chain. The steel market is recommended to be treated with a weak - shock mindset [7]. - Iron Ore: The futures and spot prices of iron ore rebounded slightly. The daily molten iron output declined, and the supply and demand were in a state of shock. The short - term price is expected to fluctuate within a range [7]. - Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron: The spot prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese rebounded slightly, but the futures prices were weak. The demand for ferroalloys was weak, and the prices are expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [8]. Chemicals - Soda Ash: The main contract of soda ash was weak last week. The supply was in an oversupply pattern, the downstream demand was weak, and the price is expected to fluctuate within a range [9]. - Glass: The main contract of glass was weak last week. The supply pressure was large, the demand was slightly improved, and the price is expected to fluctuate within a range in the short term [11]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy - Copper: Sino - US economic and trade negotiations were constructive, and the probability of extending the tariff truce was high. The Fed's stance was complex, and the Comex copper inventory was at a high level, which over - drafted the later import demand [12]. - Aluminum: The aluminum price fluctuated. The domestic social inventory and LME inventory increased, and the short - term sentiment might be volatile [12]. - Aluminum Alloy: The supply of scrap aluminum was tight, the cost increased, and the demand was in the off - season. The short - term price was expected to fluctuate strongly, but the upside space was limited [13]. - Tin: The supply - side production increased, the demand was weak, and the price was expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [13]. - Lithium Carbonate: The production increased, the price of imported lithium ore decreased, the demand increased, the inventory increased slightly, and the short - term price was expected to fluctuate weakly [14][15]. - Industrial Silicon: The production increased slightly, the social inventory was high, and the price was expected to fluctuate weakly. If the anti - involution meeting's consensus exceeded expectations, the price might rise [15]. - Polysilicon: The production increased, the futures price declined, the现货 price rose slightly, the inventory decreased slightly, and the price was expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term [16]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: The non - farm data and OPEC+ production increase led to a slight decline in oil prices, and the oil price continued to be in a weak - shock pattern [17]. - Asphalt: The asphalt price weakened, the factory inventory decreased slightly, and the price continued to be in a weak - shock pattern [17]. - PX: The PTA processing fee was low, and the PX price was expected to fluctuate and wait for the change of PTA devices [17]. - PTA: The spot trading volume was low, the downstream demand was weak, and the price was expected to fluctuate weakly [18]. - Ethylene Glycol: The port inventory decreased slightly, the supply pressure would increase in August, and the price was expected to fluctuate [18][19]. - Short - fiber: The short - fiber price declined due to the weakening of the sector, the terminal orders were average, and the inventory increased slightly. It could be shorted on rallies in the medium term [19]. - Methanol: The "anti - involution" sentiment cooled down, the supply and demand were under pressure, and the price was expected to fluctuate weakly [19]. - PP: The "anti - involution" sentiment cooled down, the supply was strong, the demand was in the off - season, and the price was expected to fluctuate weakly [19]. - LLDPE: The supply increased, the demand was weak, and the price was expected to fluctuate weakly [19]. Agricultural Products - US Soybeans: The US weather was favorable for soybean growth, but the new - crop sales were cold. The export might be adjusted downward, and the price was expected to be under pressure. In the short term, the weak US dollar provided support [20]. - Soybean and Rapeseed Meal: Domestic oil mills' soybean and soybean meal inventories continued to increase, and the soybean meal price was relatively strong compared to the US soybean futures [20]. - Soybean and Rapeseed Oil: The possibility of opening the US agricultural product import window in the short term was low. Soybean oil was supported, and rapeseed oil was in a weak - range market [21]. - Palm Oil: The palm oil production in Malaysia increased, the export decreased, and the inventory was expected to increase. The price was expected to be weak, and the soybean - palm oil price difference might continue to rise [22][23]. - Corn: The corn trading was inactive, the supply was tight, and the demand was weak. The overall supply - demand was in a weak balance in August [23]. - Pigs: The pig price was weak, the short - term supply pressure increased, and there was a possibility of further pressure on the price [23].