宝城期货豆类油脂早报-20250804

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall view of the commodity futures agricultural products sector, including soybean meal, soybean oil, and palm oil, is that the short - term and medium - term trends are mainly in a state of shock, with an intraday view of being shock - biased strong [6][8][9]. 3. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal (M) - Viewpoints: Short - term: shock; Medium - term: shock; Intraday: shock - biased strong; Reference view: shock - biased strong [6][7] - Core Logic: China's large procurement gap in the fourth quarter is the core contradiction. The intense competition between North and South American exports will affect the premium price and futures far - month contracts. The rising cost of imported soybeans supports the price of soybean meal. Short - term prices are affected by market sentiment, and after the market sentiment warms up, the price stops falling and stabilizes, and may turn to shock operation [6]. Soybean Oil (Y) - Viewpoints: Short - term: shock; Medium - term: shock; Intraday: shock - biased strong; Reference view: shock - biased strong [7][8] - Core Logic: U.S. biodiesel policy, U.S. soybean oil inventory, domestic soybean cost support, supply rhythm, and oil refinery inventory are the main influencing factors. The increase in U.S. soybean oil demand supports soybean crushing, and speculative funds' continuous increase in net long positions in U.S. soybean oil provides capital support. The increase in domestic soybean oil export demand strengthens the expectation of inventory reduction, and the short - term price is in a shock - biased strong trend [8]. Palm Oil (P) - Viewpoints: Short - term: shock; Medium - term: shock; Intraday: shock - biased strong; Reference view: shock - biased strong [7][9] - Core Logic: Biodiesel attributes, Malaysian palm oil production and exports, Indonesian exports, main producing countries' tariff policies, domestic arrivals and inventory, and substitution demand are the main influencing factors. Although the production and demand environment of Malaysian palm oil has weakened, the good expectation of Indonesian biodiesel demand and the signing of a free - trade agreement between the EU and Indonesia boost the export demand. After the release of price volatility risk, the short - term price is in a shock - biased strong trend [9].