宝城期货股指期货早报-20250804

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - The overall view for financial futures in the stock index sector is that the short - term trend of stock indices is expected to be range - bound, while the medium - term view is upward. For IH2509, the short - term is expected to be volatile, the medium - term is expected to rise, the intraday trend is expected to be slightly bullish, and the overall view is upward [1][5]. 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 Variety View Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For IH2509, the short - term is "volatile", the medium - term is "rising", the intraday is "slightly bullish", and the overall view is "rising". The core logic is that the positive policy expectations provide strong support [1]. 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - Market Performance: Last Friday, all stock indices fluctuated and consolidated. The trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 161.99 billion yuan, a decrease of 342 billion yuan from the previous day [5]. - Short - term Technical Factors: Since late June, some stocks have achieved significant gains, so some profit - taking funds have a need to take profits, and the stock indices need short - term technical consolidation. The recent decline in trading volume in the stock market indicates a decline in investors' risk appetite [5]. - Policy Factors: The July Politburo meeting emphasized the implementation of existing policies, including more active fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies. The policy focus is on boosting consumption and supporting technological innovation. Incremental policy benefits may need to wait for the Fourth Plenary Session of the 24th Central Committee in October, so the driving force of policy benefits has weakened marginally in the short term [5]. - Economic Data: The manufacturing PMI weakened in July, indicating that the problem of insufficient internal effective demand still exists [5]. - External Factors: External uncertainties remain, and the final result of China - US economic and trade consultations has not been finalized. Therefore, the driving force of the market has weakened marginally in the short term, and it needs time to fluctuate and consolidate [5].