宏观周报（8月第1周）：7月PMI显示供需矛盾加大-20250804

Macro Overview - July PMI index decreased by 0.5 percentage points to 49.3%, below expectations, indicating increased supply-demand contradictions[2] - The market experienced a volume decline with an average transaction amount of 1.8096 trillion yuan, down 39.1 billion yuan week-on-week[8] - The political bureau meeting in July did not exceed expectations, maintaining a steady growth tone and limited incremental policy information[2] Economic Indicators - GDP growth for Q3 is projected at 5.3% based on the first half of the year performance[10] - The unemployment rate in July rose slightly to 4.2%, with non-farm employment increasing by only 73,000, the lowest in nine months[2] - The M2 money supply growth rate is expected to remain stable, supporting liquidity in the market[2] Market Reactions - The bond market showed wide fluctuations, with the 10-year government bond yield down by 17 basis points to 4.22%[8] - The U.S. stock market saw declines, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 2.92% and the S&P 500 down 2.36%[8] - Commodity prices, particularly crude oil and gold, increased by 3.22% and 2.41% respectively, reflecting market risk aversion[8] Policy Insights - The political bureau emphasized the need for stable and flexible fiscal and monetary policies, with a focus on supporting consumption and small enterprises[10] - There is a call for enhancing the attractiveness and inclusivity of domestic capital markets to stabilize market expectations[12] - The meeting highlighted the importance of addressing local government debt risks and promoting orderly competition among enterprises[10]