Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The prices of most non - ferrous metals are expected to be weak in the short term due to factors such as tariff policies, market sentiment, and supply - demand relationships [1][3][5][7][8][10][12][14][17]. - For copper, the price increase is limited in the current off - season, and it may continue to fluctuate weakly [1]. - Aluminum prices are supported by relatively low domestic ingot inventories, but the rebound space is limited due to the off - season and export pressure [3]. - Lead prices are expected to fluctuate weakly as the supply remains loose [4]. - Zinc has a high risk of price decline as the industry data is weak and the previous supporting factors are weakening [5]. - Tin prices are expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term due to the weak supply - demand situation and the upcoming resumption of production in Myanmar [6][7]. - Nickel prices are expected to continue to decline, and short - selling on rallies is recommended [8]. - For lithium carbonate, the supply - demand relationship is expected to improve, but the sustainability of supply reduction needs to be observed [10]. - Alumina is expected to maintain an over - capacity pattern, and short - selling on rallies is recommended [12]. - Stainless steel prices may maintain a volatile pattern, and attention should be paid to the pressure level [14]. - Cast aluminum alloy prices have limited rebound space due to the off - season and weak supply - demand [17]. Group 3: Summary by Metal Copper - Last week, copper prices fluctuated weakly. LME copper fell 0.66% to $9633/ton, and SHFE copper closed at 78170 yuan/ton [1]. - The total inventory of the three major exchanges increased by 21,000 tons, with different changes in each exchange. Shanghai bonded area inventory increased by 4,000 tons [1]. - The spot import of copper remained at a loss, and the Yangshan copper premium declined. The domestic basis increased due to tight supply [1]. - The scrap - refined copper price difference was 800 yuan/ton, and the operating rate of recycled copper rod enterprises increased slightly [1]. - The operating rate of domestic refined copper rod enterprises rebounded, while that of cable enterprises decreased [1]. - The expected trading range for SHFE copper this week is 76,800 - 79,600 yuan/ton, and for LME copper 3M is $9400 - 9900/ton [1]. Aluminum - Last week, aluminum prices fluctuated weakly. SHFE aluminum fell 1.2%, and LME aluminum fell 2.26% to $2571/ton [3]. - The position of SHFE aluminum weighted contract decreased by 76,000 lots, and the futures warehouse receipts decreased to 49,000 tons [3]. - Domestic aluminum ingot inventory increased by 34,000 tons to 544,000 tons, and bonded area inventory decreased to 108,000 tons. Aluminum rod inventory increased by 2,000 tons [3]. - The spot in East China was at a discount of 20 yuan/ton to the futures, and the buyer sentiment was weak in the off - season [3]. - The operating rate of domestic major aluminum product enterprises continued to decline, except for a slight improvement in aluminum rod [3]. - LME aluminum inventory increased by 12,000 tons to 463,000 tons, and Cash/3M was at a discount of $2.6/ton [3]. - The expected trading range for domestic SHFE aluminum this week is 20,200 - 20,700 yuan/ton, and for LME aluminum 3M is $2520 - 2620/ton [3]. Lead - Last Friday, SHFE lead index rose 0.07% to 16,736 yuan/ton, and LME lead 3S fell to $1966.5/ton [4]. - The refined - scrap lead price difference was - 50 yuan/ton, and the average price of waste electric vehicle batteries was 10,200 yuan/ton [4]. - SHFE lead futures inventory was 59,900 tons, and LME lead inventory was 276,500 tons [4]. - The supply of lead is expected to remain loose, and the price is expected to fluctuate weakly [4]. Zinc - Last Friday, SHFE zinc index fell 0.15% to 22,320 yuan/ton, and LME zinc 3S fell to $2749/ton [5]. - The domestic social inventory decreased slightly to 103,200 tons [5]. - Zinc ore inventory continued to accumulate, and the production of refined zinc is expected to increase in August [5]. - The downstream operating rate declined significantly, and the short - term consumption of zinc ingots weakened [5]. - The risk of zinc price decline is expected to increase [5]. Tin - Last week, tin prices fluctuated downwards [6]. - The supply in Yunnan is currently short, and some smelters plan to stop for maintenance. The supply is expected to recover significantly in the fourth quarter [6]. - Domestic consumption is weak in the off - season, while overseas demand is strong due to AI computing power [7]. - The social inventory of tin ingots increased slightly [7]. - Tin prices are expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term, with the domestic price range of 250,000 - 270,000 yuan/ton and LME price range of $31,000 - 33,000/ton [7]. Nickel - Last week, nickel prices fluctuated weakly, closing at 119,770 yuan/ton, down 3.69% [8]. - The macro - environment and the overall over - supply situation of stainless steel and nickel iron put pressure on nickel prices [8]. - Short - selling on rallies is recommended, with the expected trading range for SHFE nickel of 115,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton and for LME nickel 3M of $14,500 - 16,500/ton [8]. Lithium Carbonate - The MMLC spot index of lithium carbonate was flat on Friday, down 10.41% for the week [10]. - The price of lithium concentrate from Australia decreased [10]. - The supply - demand relationship is expected to improve, but the sustainability of supply reduction needs to be observed [10]. - Speculative funds are advised to wait and see, and holders can choose appropriate entry points [10]. - The expected trading range for the main contract of lithium carbonate on GZEE is 66,700 - 71,500 yuan/ton [10]. Alumina - On August 1, 2025, the alumina index fell 1.65% to 3153 yuan/ton [12]. - The spot prices in various regions remained unchanged, and the import window was closed [12]. - The futures warehouse receipts remained at a historical low [12]. - Short - selling on rallies is recommended, with the expected trading range for the domestic main contract AO2509 of 3000 - 3400 yuan/ton [12]. Stainless Steel - On Friday, the stainless steel main contract closed at 12,840 yuan/ton, up 0.27% [14]. - The spot prices in Foshan and Wuxi remained unchanged [14]. - The social inventory decreased slightly, but the 300 - series inventory increased [14]. - The stainless steel price is expected to remain volatile, and attention should be paid to the pressure level of 13,130 yuan/ton [14]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - Last week, the futures price of cast aluminum alloy fluctuated downwards, with the AD2511 contract down 1.07% to 19,920 yuan/ton [17]. - The weighted contract position decreased, and the price difference between AD2511 and AL2511 contracts increased [17]. - The spot price decreased, and the downstream trading was light in the off - season [17]. - The production cost decreased, and the production volume increased slightly [17]. - The inventory increased, and the price rebound space is limited [17].
五矿期货早报有色金属-20250804
Wu Kuang Qi Huo·2025-08-04 01:10