冠通期货资讯早间报-20250804

1. Overnight Night Market Trends 1.1 International Precious Metals - COMEX gold futures rose 2.01% to $3416 per ounce, with a cumulative increase of 2.41% [2] - COMEX silver futures rose 1.07% to $37.11 per ounce, with a cumulative decrease of 3.28% [2] 1.2 London Base Metals - LME tin rose 1.54% to $33,215 per ton, with a cumulative decrease of 2.48% [2] - LME nickel rose 0.56% to $15,020 per ton, with a cumulative decrease of 1.96% [2] - LME aluminum rose 0.25% to $2,571.5 per ton, with a cumulative decrease of 2.43% [2] 1.3 Crude Oil - US crude oil futures fell 2.89% to $67.26 per barrel, with a weekly increase of 3.22% [2] - Brent crude oil futures fell 3.00% to $69.55 per barrel, with a weekly increase of 2.79% [2] 1.4 Domestic Commodity Futures - Most domestic commodity futures closed lower. Black - series commodities generally declined, with coke down 2.75%, coking coal down 2.42%, and rebar down 1.18% [3] - Energy products mostly fell, with low - sulfur fuel oil down 2.51%, fuel oil down 1.78%, and LPG down 1.61% [3] - Chemical products mostly dropped, with rubber down 1.35%, bitumen down 1.34%, and styrene down 0.82% [3] - Oilseeds and oils showed mixed performance, with soybean meal up 0.63%, soybean No.2 up 0.35%, and palm oil down 1.24% [3] 2. Important Information 2.1 Macroeconomic Information - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) will speed up the revision of the Price Law, and the relevant draft is soliciting public opinions. It will also regulate low - price and disorderly competition and market price order [5] - The NDRC will govern enterprises' disorderly competition, promote capacity management in key industries, standardize bidding, and carry out market access barrier cleaning [5] - The NDRC has established a regular communication mechanism with private enterprises and is taking measures to address "involution - style" competition [5] - The China Futures Association is soliciting public opinions on the "Management Rules for Unfair Competition in Futures Brokerage Business (Draft for Comment)" [5] - China opposes the abuse of tariffs, and the People's Bank of China hopes that the US - China Business Council will contribute to Sino - US relations [6][7] - As of August 1, the Shanghai Export Containerized Freight Index dropped 41.85 points, and the China Export Containerized Freight Index fell 2.3% [9] - The People's Bank of China will continue a moderately loose monetary policy [9] - US non - farm payrolls in July were lower than expected, and the unemployment rate rose slightly [9] - Trump commented on the Fed's interest rate and Powell's position, and traders increased bets on a Fed rate cut in September [10][11] 2.2 Energy and Chemical Futures - The "Measures for the Circulation of Refined Oil Products" will come into effect on September 1, 2025 [13] - OPEC + decided to increase production by 548,000 barrels per day in September, and the next meeting is on September 7, 2025 [15] 2.3 Metal Futures - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued a notice on the 2025 special energy - saving supervision task list for the polysilicon industry [17] - Last week, copper inventory decreased by 880 tons, while aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin inventories increased [18] - A primary lead smelter in North China will conduct a 25 - day maintenance in late August, affecting about 9,000 - 9,500 tons of lead production [19] - As of July 31, the average weekly capacity utilization rate of 13 domestic silicone DMC sample enterprises was 70.08%, up 4.97% week - on - week [20] - An Australian mining company shipped 349,973 tons of bauxite from a Guinean port for the first time [20] - An earthquake in Chile on August 1 caused casualties at a Codelco copper mine, and the expected copper production in 2025 is 370,000 metal tons [22] 2.4 Black - Series Futures - Coal mines in southern Shaanxi are self - checking for over - production [24] - South African port maintenance from September to November may affect manganese ore shipments, but the impact on the Chinese market is expected to be limited [24] - In July, silicon - manganese production increased 8.94% month - on - month, and silicon - iron production increased 7.88% month - on - month [24] - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.46%, and the daily hot - metal output decreased by 1.52 million tons week - on - week [24] - The total inventory of imported iron ore at 45 ports decreased by 132.48 million tons week - on - week [25] - This week, the total urban inventory increased by 21.64 million tons (+2.88%), construction steel inventory increased by 13.78 million tons (+3.47%), and hot - rolled coil inventory increased by 6.50 million tons (+3.62%) [26][27] 2.5 Agricultural Product Futures - From July 1 - 31, 2025, Malaysian palm oil production increased 7.07% month - on - month [29] - Indonesia exported 11 million metric tons of palm oil from January to June, up 2.69% year - on - year [30] - As of August 1, the self - breeding and self - raising pig farming profit was 43.85 yuan per head, and the profit from purchasing piglets for farming was a loss of 116.78 yuan per head [30] - From July 26 to August 1, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 225.39 million tons, with an operating rate of 63.36%, 11.87 million tons lower than expected [30] 3. Financial Market 3.1 Finance - The new - share market on the Beijing Stock Exchange remains hot. Dingjia Precision rose 479.12% on its first trading day, and all 7 new stocks listed this year have seen significant gains [32] - The Hong Kong Stock Exchange's IPO pricing mechanism reform took effect on August 4, focusing on optimizing the new - share allocation ratio and other aspects [34] - Stock private - equity positions have slightly increased, with hundred - billion - level private - equity funds increasing their positions significantly [34] - A - share market indices corrected last week, but institutions believe the core logic for the rise remains unchanged and suggest focusing on certain sectors [35] - Public - offering institutions expect the A - share market to continue a structural market and the attractiveness of Hong Kong stock dividend assets to increase [35] - CITIC Securities focuses on AI, innovative drugs, resources, Hengke, and the Science and Technology Innovation Board [35] - China Merchants Securities believes the market may be volatile in early - mid August and resume its upward trend in late August [36] - Public - offering funds' IPO subscription strategies are shifting from "easy profit - making" to "professional - based" [38] 3.2 Industry - In July, China's new - energy vehicle market continued to grow, with BYD, SAIC, and Geely having high sales, and new - force brands like Leapmotor and XPeng Motors showing significant growth [39] - As of August 3, the single - day movie box office in the 2025 summer season reached a new high, and the total box office exceeded 7 billion [39] - Hospitals in many places are strictly regulating pharmaceutical representatives [40] - Paper companies have issued multiple price - increase notices, but the impact on the end - market is uncertain [40] 3.3 Overseas - The Bank of England may cut interest rates again on Thursday [41] 3.4 International Stock Markets - Danish pharmaceutical giant Novo Nordisk's stock price dropped over 30% last week, and its market value evaporated over $100 billion [42] 3.5 Bonds - The bond - trading enthusiasm of small and medium - sized banks reached a new high in July, with city and rural commercial banks' trading volume exceeding 17 trillion yuan [43] - As of August 3, the issuance scale of panda bonds in the inter - bank market this year was 116.65 billion yuan, and the cumulative issuance scale has exceeded 1 trillion yuan [43] 3.6 Foreign Exchange - Some investors believe the US dollar will continue to rise in the coming months, and institutions have made corresponding investment suggestions [44] 4. Upcoming Economic Data and Events 4.1 Economic Data - Japan's July base money at 07:50 [47] - Switzerland's July CPI at 14:30 [47] - Spain's July unemployment number at 15:00 [47] - Switzerland's July SVME Purchasing Managers' Index at 15:30 [47] - Eurozone's August Sentix Investor Confidence Index at 16:30 [47] - Canada's national economic confidence index as of August 1 at 20:00 [47] - US June factory orders at 22:00 [47] - US 3 - month/6 - month Treasury bill auction results as of August 4 at 23:30 [47] - South Korea's July foreign exchange reserves at 05:00 the next day [47] 4.2 Events - 495.8 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchases of the People's Bank of China will mature at 09:20 [49] - The Hong Kong Stock Exchange's new - share market pricing optimization takes effect on August 4 [49]