金信期货日刊-20250804

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term trend of the alumina futures market may fluctuate sharply due to market sentiment, but in the long - term, the price is likely to decline under pressure due to the strong expectation of supply surplus [3][4] - The short - term trend of A - share indices is mainly high - level oscillation [7] - The long - term direction of gold is still optimistic, currently in a short - term small - range oscillation at the bottom of the platform [11][12] - For iron ore, with the improvement of the macro - environment, it is in a positive feedback repair state, but recent fluctuations are large, so cautious operation is needed [15][16] - The fundamentals of glass have not changed significantly, and its recent trend is more driven by news and sentiment, with cautious operation required [20] - The new US renewable fuel policy may boost the Malaysian crude palm oil futures in the morning, but weak exports may limit the upward momentum [23] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Alumina Futures - The sharp rise was driven by policy expectations and market sentiment. On July 19, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology mentioned a plan to stabilize growth in the non - ferrous industry, leading to a large influx of long - position funds. The price climbed until it hit a resistance at the 3500 yuan/ton mark [3] - The subsequent decline was due to cooling market sentiment and fundamental factors. The sharp drop in the coking coal variety last Friday night led to a callback in leading varieties, and the alumina market has an overall loose supply - demand situation, with an expanding supply surplus trend and a decline in net export data in June [3] A - share Indices - The three major A - share indices opened lower and rose in the morning, then continued to oscillate and decline in the afternoon, and finally closed with a low - level doji. The National Healthcare Security Administration has formulated a "new drug listing initial price mechanism", and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has issued a notice on the 2025 polysilicon industry special energy - saving supervision task list [7] Gold - The Fed's decision not to cut interest rates has reduced the expectation of rate cuts this year, causing an adjustment in the gold price. However, the long - term outlook remains positive, and the weekly line adjustment is relatively sufficient, with short - term small - range oscillation at the bottom of the platform [11][12] Iron Ore - The macro - environment has improved, risk appetite has increased, and steel mills' profits are acceptable, resulting in high pig iron output. The industry chain is in a positive feedback repair state. Technically, it had a narrow - range consolidation today, with large recent fluctuations, so cautious operation is required [15][16] Glass - The supply side has not seen a significant cold - repair situation due to losses. Factory inventories are marginally decreasing, and the downstream deep - processing orders have weak restocking motivation. The fundamentals have not changed significantly, and the recent trend is more driven by news and sentiment. Technically, it oscillated and declined today, and cautious operation is needed [20] Palm Oil - The new US renewable fuel policy has increased the use of soybean oil in biodiesel production, driving up the Chicago soybean oil price to a contract high, and the strong rise of Dalian edible oil futures will help the performance of the Malaysian crude palm oil futures in the morning. However, weak exports in Malaysia may limit the upward momentum [23]