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近期宏观与资本市场重要事件研判
GOLDEN SUN SECURITIES·2025-08-04 01:20

Group 1 - The July Politburo meeting decided to hold the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee in October to discuss the formulation of the "14th Five-Year Plan" [1][16] - The meeting emphasized the need for macro policies to focus on "implementation and detail," removing references to "timely reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate reductions," indicating a shift from "quantity" to "quality" [1][16] - The "de-rolling" policy was officially included in the policy framework, with a focus on "key industries" and a shift away from price-related discussions [1][17] Group 2 - The manufacturing PMI for July was reported at 49.3%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points month-on-month, indicating a contraction [2][18] - Recent supply-demand policies have led to price increases in some commodities, which may boost PPI expectations, but historical data suggests that strong expectations do not always translate into strong realities [2][19] - The PPI's improvement will depend on both supply-side adjustments and demand stabilization [2][19] Group 3 - The recent China-US-Sweden trade talks resulted in a 90-day extension of tariff measures, indicating limited short-term impact from Trump's tariff policies [3][22] - Long-term risks from reciprocal tariffs should not be underestimated, as the outcomes of the trade talks did not exceed expectations and merely postponed risk points [3][24] - Historical experiences from the 2018 trade war suggest that Trump's stance can be unpredictable, which may affect future trade relations [3][24] Group 4 - The A-share market has seen a significant improvement in funding, with financing balances exceeding 2024 levels and creating a new high [4][26] - The relationship between the bond market and the stock market is characterized by a "see-saw" effect, where funds may shift from bonds to stocks, potentially driving A-share market performance [4][26] - However, the risk of diminishing incremental funding remains, and financing balances should be viewed as a synchronous indicator rather than a leading one [4][27] Group 5 - The overall profit expectations for A-shares in 2025 are likely to be weak, with a downward trend expected in the second and third quarters, followed by a potential rebound in the fourth quarter [5][29] - The A-share profit cycle showed improvement in the first quarter of this year, but the recovery may face constraints due to pressure on revenue growth [5][29] - The main driver of profit growth in Q1 2025 is expected to be the year-on-year increase in net profit margins, while revenue growth remains under pressure [5][29] Group 6 - The upcoming mid-year report disclosures in August are expected to increase the importance of performance trading [6][34] - Stocks with characteristics of "high growth in performance + high opening" are likely to yield good returns, especially when combined with relative performance growth screening [6][34] - Key industries for August include motorcycles, optical electronics, traditional Chinese medicine, lighting equipment, and agriculture [6][34]