锌月报：风险偏好降温，锌价震荡偏弱-20250804

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The macro - environment shows that concerns about the US economic recession resurface, and the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in September increases. In China, the economic pressure eases in the second half of the year, and the macro - environment tends to be stable [2][83]. - On the supply side, overseas zinc mine production is mostly stable, and domestic mine output is steadily released. In August, zinc processing fees continue to rise, refinery profits improve, and the supply of refined zinc is expected to increase by 12,000 tons month - on - month [2][83]. - The demand side is differentiated. High - temperature and heavy - rain weather affects infrastructure construction. The Yalong River project boosts consumption expectations but has limited actual impact. The trade - in policy has overdrawn some demand. Zinc consumption in the automotive and home - appliance sectors weakens marginally but remains resilient. The wind - power industry and galvanized product exports support demand, while the slowdown in the photovoltaic industry and the weak real - estate market drag down demand [2][83]. - Overall, the domestic policy expectations are fulfilled, but overseas economic concerns resurface. The market risk preference weakens. The supply of zinc continues to grow, while the demand is lackluster. The fundamental situation remains weak, and the high - level hedging demand in the industry suppresses zinc prices. However, the high concentration of LME zinc delivery warrants provides a basis for a short squeeze, which may support zinc prices or slow down the decline. It is expected that the main contract of Shanghai zinc will show a weak and volatile pattern in August, and the strategy is to sell on rebounds [2][84]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Zinc Market行情回顾 - In early July, Shanghai zinc continued to oscillate at a low level. In late July, the price first rose and then fell. By the end of July, the price closed at 22,345 yuan/ton, with a monthly decline of 0.67%. LME zinc's center of gravity moved up, and it closed at 2,762 US dollars/ton at the end of the month, with a monthly increase of 0.77% [7]. 3.2 Macro - aspect 3.2.1 US Aspect - The US economy weakens, with the ISM manufacturing PMI in July hitting a nine - month low, and the non - farm employment data braking sharply. Inflation rebounds slightly, and the Fed's interest - rate decision shows internal differences. After the non - farm employment data in July, the expectation of a September interest - rate cut increases significantly. The US has reached trade agreements with some countries, and the global tariff level is expected to be 15 - 20%, with the tariff - driven factor weakening [10][11][12]. 3.2.2 Euro - zone Aspect - The Euro - zone economy shows certain resilience driven by domestic demand, with the comprehensive PMI in July rising. Inflation rebounds slightly, and the ECB suspends interest - rate cuts. However, the US - EU tariff agreement increases trade costs and will impact the EU's automotive and pharmaceutical industries [13][14]. 3.2.3 China Aspect - China's GDP in Q2 2025 increased by 5.2% year - on - year, slightly lower than that in Q1. The economy in June showed a differentiated performance, with external demand and production rebounding, while consumption and investment weakening. The Politburo meeting at the end of the month indicated that the focus of fiscal policy in the second half of the year is on implementation, and the expectation of strong stimulus policies weakens [15][16][17]. 3.3 Zinc Fundamental Analysis 3.3.1 Zinc Ore Supply Situation - Global Zinc Concentrate Supply Shifts from Tight to Loose: In 2025, from January to May, the global zinc concentrate cumulative output was 4.9589 million tons, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 4.58%. Overseas mines are generally stable in production, and it is estimated that the overseas zinc ore increment for the whole year will be 55 - 60 million tons. In China, new mines are being put into production, and the annual increment is expected to be 9 - 10 million tons [31][32][33]. - Zinc Concentrate Processing Fees Continue to Rise Month - on - Month, and Zinc Ore Imports Decline Significantly Month - on - Month: In August, domestic and imported zinc concentrate processing fees increased. Due to the stable recovery of zinc ore supply, smelters have a high bargaining power. The zinc ore import volume in June decreased significantly month - on - month. Although overseas mines are releasing incremental output, factors such as the loss of zinc ore imports and the weakening of the Shanghai - London ratio may limit future imports, but there is still a possibility of a rebound [39]. 3.3.2 Refined Zinc Supply Situation - Overseas Smelters Have Both Production Cuts and Expansions, and Supply Disturbance Risks Remain: From January to May 2025, the global refined zinc cumulative output decreased year - on - year, mainly due to overseas production cuts. Some overseas smelters have reduced production, while some have expanded production. It is expected that the global refined zinc supply increment will mainly come from China [45]. - Refined Zinc Output from January to July Slightly Exceeds Expectations, and Output in August Remains Above 600,000 Tons: In July, China's refined zinc output was 602,800 tons, and it is expected to reach 621,500 tons in August. The import volume of refined zinc in June increased, but since May, the import window has been closed, and future imports will mainly be long - term contracts [50][51]. 3.3.3 Refined Zinc Demand Situation - High Interest Rates and Tariffs Disturb Overseas Demand, Which is Under Pressure: From January to May 2025, the global refined zinc consumption increased slightly year - on - year. In overseas markets, high interest rates and tariffs have a negative impact on the real - estate and automotive industries, and overseas terminal consumption is difficult to improve significantly [61][62]. - The Start - up of Initial Enterprises is Seasonally Weak, and Galvanized Exports Remain Resilient: In July, the start - up rate of initial enterprises was weak, in line with the seasonal pattern. Galvanized product exports increased in June, but it is expected to decline marginally in July [64][65]. - Terminal Consumption is Differentiated: In the traditional infrastructure sector, the growth rate of infrastructure investment has slowed down, but it is expected to accelerate in the second half of the year. The real - estate market is still weak, with both investment and sales declining. The automotive and home - appliance industries have certain resilience, but the growth rate may slow down. The photovoltaic industry has slowed down, while the wind - power industry is expected to continue to grow [69][70][72][74][76][77]. 3.3.4 Overseas Inventory Continues to Decline from a High Level, and Domestic Inventory Increases Slightly - In July, LME inventory decreased, and there were concerns about a short squeeze, which pushed up zinc prices. Social inventory in China increased slowly. It is expected that inventory will continue to increase seasonally in early August but will stop increasing in late August as downstream demand recovers [，81]. 3.4 Summary and Future Outlook - The macro - environment tends to be stable, the supply of zinc shows an increasing trend, and the demand is differentiated. The fundamental situation of zinc remains weak, but the high concentration of LME zinc delivery warrants may support zinc prices. It is expected that the Shanghai zinc main contract will show a weak and volatile pattern in August, and the strategy is to sell on rebounds [83][84].