反内卷情绪降温，工业硅大幅回落

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the price of industrial silicon dropped significantly due to the cooling of the anti - involution sentiment in China, the active capacity contraction in the photovoltaic downstream industry chain squeezing the demand for silicon materials, and the implementation of US reciprocal tariffs dragging down the economic growth prospects and global total demand for industrial products. The supply side continued to shrink, while the demand side showed different trends in different sectors of the photovoltaic industry. Technically, the futures price was expected to continue the downward trend in the short term [2][6][10]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market Data - From July 25th to August 1st, the industrial silicon main contract price decreased from 9725 yuan/ton to 8500 yuan/ton, a decline of 12.60%. The prices of various spot grades of industrial silicon also showed different degrees of decline, except for the unchanged price of non - oxygenated 553. The price of polysilicon dense material increased by 4.76% to 44 yuan/ton, and the industrial silicon social inventory rose to 540,000 tons, an increase of 0.93% [4]. Market Analysis and Outlook - Reasons for price decline: Cooling of anti - involution sentiment, capacity contraction in the photovoltaic downstream industry, and US reciprocal tariffs [2][6][10]. - Supply side: Xinjiang's operating rate remained at 48%, the operating rate in Sichuan and Yunnan rebounded to around 30%, and the production in Inner Mongolia and Gansu was weakly stable. The overall supply continued to shrink [2][6][10]. - Demand side: The polysilicon market mainly had historical order replenishment transactions with stable prices. The silicon wafer market raised prices but couldn't cover costs. The photovoltaic cell market had limited price increase space, and the component market had a situation of high prices but low sales. Only HJT large - size components had relatively high premiums and strong shipments [2][6][10]. - Macro - aspect: China's official manufacturing PMI in July was 49.3, with a marginal decline in manufacturing demand. The non - manufacturing business activity index remained in the expansion range [7]. - Supply - demand situation: As of July 25th, the weekly output of industrial silicon was 78,600 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 23.4%. The overall furnace - opening rate rose slightly to 32.9%. The photovoltaic downstream market demand was expected to enter a deceleration cycle [8]. - Inventory situation: As of August 1st, the national social inventory of industrial silicon rose to 540,000 tons. The exchange - registered warehouse receipt volume continued to increase, and the pressure on warehouse receipt inventory decreased due to the continuous decline in domestic production [9]. Industry News - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued the notice of the 2025 special energy - saving supervision task list for the polysilicon industry, requiring local departments to organize implementation and report results by September 30th, 2025 [11]. - The Guangzhou Futures Exchange adjusted the trading limits of some contracts of industrial silicon, polysilicon, and lithium carbonate futures starting from August 1st, 2025 [12]. Relevant Charts - The report provided multiple charts including industrial silicon production, export volume, domestic social inventory, Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipt inventory, production of main producing areas, production of organic silicon DMC, production of polysilicon, and spot prices of various grades of industrial silicon and related products [13][16][17].