南华期货聚酯产业周报（20250803）：“反内卷”告一段落，回归基本面-20250804

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Group 2: Core Views of the Report - MEG: After the "anti - involution" premium is squeezed out, the price is expected to fluctuate within a range based on the fundamentals. In the third quarter, the inventory accumulation is small, and there is limited downward space due to low inventory [1][2][3] - PX - TA: It is advisable to go long on expanding TA processing fees at low prices. Although the short - term supply and demand of PX - TA have little contradiction, the current TA processing fees are at a historical low, and there are many future maintenance expectations [4][5][6] Group 3: Summaries According to Catalogs MEG - Inventory: The inventory at East China ports decreased to 52.1 tons, a decrease of 1.2 tons compared to the previous period. The expected inventory accumulation at ports next Monday is limited [1][2] - Device: Tongliao Jinmei stopped production due to an accident, and Zhonghuaxin restarted at a low load. Overseas, 4 sets of 2.15 million - ton capacity devices in Saudi Arabia that were temporarily shut down have restarted at a low load [1] - Supply: The total load increased to 69% (+0.65%), with the coal - based load rising to 75% (+0.64%). The profit of each route was significantly compressed [2] - Demand: The load of filament and staple fiber decreased slightly, and the polyester load dropped to 88.1% (-0.6%). The processing profit of polyester products has been repaired, and there is an expectation of an increase in filament load in the future [2] PX - TA - PX - Device: After Sheng Hong's PX device malfunction, it increased its load, and Sinochem slightly reduced its load. The overall load increased to 81.1% (+1.2%). Attention should be paid to the restart progress of Weilian [4] - Profit: The cost of naphtha has increased significantly, the profit of the PX link has been compressed, PXN has been compressed to 247 (-45), and PX - MX has been repaired to 110 (-19) [4][5] - PTA - Device: There have been successive load reductions and overhauls, and the load has dropped to 75.3% (-4.6%). Sanfangxiang's new device has successfully produced products [5] - Inventory: The inventory reduction trend has slowed down, and the social inventory has slightly increased to 2.25 million tons (+3) [5] - Profit: The overall industrial chain profit has been compressed to a low level, and the TA cash - flow processing fee has been compressed to 154 (-26) [5] - Demand: Similar to MEG, the polyester load has decreased, but there is an expectation of an increase in filament load in the future [5] Polyester - Supply: The overall polyester load decreased to 88.1% (-0.6%), with the filament load dropping to 90.5% (-0.8%) and the staple fiber load to 90.3% (-0.3%) [10] - Profit: The processing profit of polyester products has been significantly repaired, such as POY's profit increasing from - 114 to 110 yuan/ton [10] - Inventory: The inventory pressure of filament products has slightly increased, and the inventory days of POY, FDY, and DTY have all increased [10] - Production and Sales: The production and sales of filament are light, with the production - sales ratio dropping to 30.8% (-29.3%) [10] Downstream of Polyester - Weaving: The loom load has slightly increased, and the number of weaving orders has increased by 0.4 days. However, the actual orders at the terminal have not improved yet [2][5] - Spinning Mill: The spinning mill load remains stable, and the inventory of pure polyester yarn and polyester - cotton yarn shows no significant change [134] - Terminal Macro: The production of cloth and yarn, the retail sales of clothing, and the production of soft drinks all show certain seasonal characteristics [144][145][146] - Textile Export: The export quantity and value indexes of the textile and textile - clothing industries show different trends, and the export delivery value also has corresponding changes [148][149][152]