美国经济：就业显著走弱，美联储面临两难

Employment Data - In July, the U.S. added 73,000 non-farm jobs, below the market expectation of 104,000[5] - The non-farm employment figures for May and June were revised down by 258,000 to 19,000 and 14,000 respectively, resulting in a 3-month moving average of 35,000, the lowest since the pandemic[5] - Private sector job growth increased from 3,000 to 83,000 in July, while goods-producing jobs decreased by 13,000, with manufacturing jobs experiencing three consecutive months of negative growth[5] Unemployment and Labor Participation - The unemployment rate rose from 4.1% to 4.2%, marking a new high since 2021 but still at historical lows[5] - The labor participation rate fell to 62.2%, the lowest since 2022, indicating a contraction in labor supply[5] - The household survey showed a decrease of 260,000 in employment and an increase of 220,000 in unemployment in July[5] Federal Reserve's Dilemma - Fed Chair Powell indicated that even if job growth drops to zero, a stable unemployment rate would suggest a robust labor market due to simultaneous declines in supply and demand[5] - The Fed faces a dilemma as tariffs may drive inflation up, complicating the balance between expanding employment and reducing inflation[5] - It is anticipated that the Fed will likely keep interest rates unchanged in September, followed by rate cuts in October and December[5]