五矿期货贵金属日报-20250804

Group 1: Market Data - Au(T+D) closed at 767.18 yuan/gram, up 0.08% from the previous trading day; Ag(T+D) closed at 8,888.00 yuan/kilogram, down 0.80% [4] - London gold closed at 3,346.85 dollars/ounce, up 1.46%; London silver closed at 36.49 dollars/ounce, up 0.75% [4] - SPDR Gold ETF holdings were 953.08 tons, down 0.15%; SLV Silver ETF holdings were 15,056.66 tons, down 0.04% [4] - The yield of the 10-year US Treasury bond was 4.23%, down 0.14 percentage points; TIPS was 1.90%, down 0.08 percentage points [4] - The US dollar index was 98.69, down 1.36%; the offshore RMB was 7.2545, down 0.49% [4] - The Dow Jones Index was 43,588.58, down 1.23%; the S&P 500 was 6,238.01, down 1.60%; the Nasdaq Index was 20,650.13, down 2.24%; the VIX Index was 20.38, up 21.89% [4] - The London FTSE 100 was 9,068.58, down 0.70%; the Tokyo Nikkei 225 Index was 40,799.60, down 0.66% [4] Group 2: Market Performance of Gold and Silver - COMEX gold closed at 3,416.00 dollars/ounce, up 2.21%; trading volume was 22.23 million lots, up 43.81%; open interest was 44.53 million lots, down 9.02%; inventory was 1,204 tons, up 0.10% [7] - LBMA gold closed at 3,346.85 dollars/ounce, up 1.46% [7] - SHFE gold closed at 770.72 yuan/gram, up 0.06%; trading volume was 22.64 million lots, down 30.20%; open interest was 43.16 million lots, up 0.44%; inventory was 35.75 tons, up 0.29%; precipitation funds were 53.229 billion yuan, up 0.50% [7] - Au(T+D) closed at 767.18 yuan/gram, up 0.08%; trading volume was 24.78 tons, down 23.64%; open interest was 206.33 tons, down 1.85% [7] - COMEX silver closed at 37.11 dollars/ounce, up 0.86%; open interest was 17.03 million lots, down 1.93%; inventory was 15,759 tons, up 0.29% [7] - LBMA silver closed at 36.49 dollars/ounce, up 0.75% [7] - SHFE silver closed at 8,918.00 yuan/kilogram, down 1.00%; trading volume was 77.75 million lots, down 44.22%; open interest was 78.57 million lots, down 1.47%; inventory was 1,183.96 tons, down 1.99%; precipitation funds were 18.918 billion yuan, down 2.46% [7] - Ag(T+D) closed at 8,888.00 yuan/kilogram, down 0.80%; trading volume was 421.57 tons, down 37.62%; open interest was 3,483.588 tons, up 1.26% [7] Group 3: Market Outlook and Strategy - The much weaker-than-expected non-farm payrolls data reversed the previous market judgment on the resilience of the US economy; after the release of the non-farm payrolls data, the market's expectation of the Fed's subsequent loose monetary policy rebounded significantly [2][3] - The CME interest rate observer shows that the current market expectation of the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points at the September FOMC meeting has risen to 80.3%, and it is also expected that the Fed will continue to cut interest rates by 25 basis points at the October FOMC meeting [3] - With Trump's strong pressure on the Fed's monetary policy independence through personnel appointments and the much lower-than-expected employment data, it is certain that the Fed will implement further loose monetary policies [3] - The precious metals strategy suggests buying on dips; the reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai gold is 773 - 801 yuan/gram, and the reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai silver is 8,885 - 9,287 yuan/kilogram [3] Group 4: Price Comparison and Spread Analysis - Gold internal and external spreads: On August 1, 2025, the SHFE-COMEX spread was -15.23 yuan/gram (-65.69 dollars/ounce), and the SGE-LBMA spread was -13.61 yuan/gram (-58.87 dollars/ounce) [54] - Silver internal and external spreads: On August 1, 2025, the SHFE-COMEX spread was 317.21 yuan/kilogram (1.37 dollars/ounce), and the SGE-LBMA spread was 327.56 yuan/kilogram (1.42 dollars/ounce) [54]