Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The overall market is influenced by various factors such as policies, economic data, and international events. In the short - term, market sentiment may fluctuate, but in the long - run, different sectors will be affected by their own fundamentals. For instance, the capital market is supported by policies, but the real economy's recovery pace and demand are key factors affecting the prices of different commodities [3][5]. - The policy's attitude towards the capital market is positive, but the market may still face adjustments due to external factors and short - term over - valuation. For the bond market, interest rates are expected to decline in the long - term under the background of weak domestic demand and loose funds, but may be in a short - term shock pattern [3][5]. - Different commodity sectors have different supply - demand situations. Some sectors are facing supply - side challenges, while others are affected by demand - side weakness. For example, the copper and aluminum markets are affected by supply and demand, and the price trends are expected to be weak in the short - term [9][10]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro - Financial Category Index Futures - News: The restoration of VAT on bond interest income, media comments on NVIDIA, stock market supervision, and weak US non - farm employment data [2]. - Base Ratio: The base ratios of IF, IC, IM, and IH contracts show different trends. The trading logic is to buy on dips based on the policy's support for the capital market [3]. Treasury Bonds - Market: TL, T, TF, and TS contracts showed declines on Friday. There were changes in bond tax policies, and the central bank had a large - scale net withdrawal of funds [4]. - Strategy: The economic data in the first half of the year was resilient, but the PMI in July was lower than expected. The interest rate is expected to decline in the long - term, and the bond market may be in a short - term shock pattern [5]. Precious Metals - Market: Both domestic and international gold and silver prices rose. The weak non - farm data in the US reversed the market's expectation of the US economy, increasing the expectation of the Fed's loose monetary policy [6]. - Strategy: It is recommended to buy on dips. The reference operating ranges for Shanghai gold and silver are provided [7]. Non - Ferrous Metals Category Copper - Market: The copper price oscillated weakly last week. The inventory of the three major exchanges increased, and the import of spot copper was in a loss. The price is expected to continue to oscillate weakly in the short - term [9]. Aluminum - Market: The aluminum price oscillated weakly. The domestic aluminum ingot inventory increased, and the downstream demand was in the off - season. The price is expected to continue to oscillate weakly in the short - term [10]. Zinc - Market: The zinc price declined slightly. The zinc ore inventory continued to accumulate, and the downstream consumption weakened. The risk of zinc price decline is expected to increase [11][12]. Lead - Market: The lead price rose slightly. The supply of lead ingots was relatively loose, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly [13]. Nickel - Market: The nickel price oscillated weakly. The stainless steel and nickel - iron market was in an oversupply situation, and it is recommended to sell on rallies [14]. Tin - Market: The tin price oscillated and declined. The supply was low, and the demand was weak. The supply is expected to increase in the fourth quarter, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term [15]. Carbonate Lithium - Market: The carbonate lithium price declined. The supply reduction is expected to support the price, but the sustainability of supply reduction needs to be observed. It is recommended that speculative funds wait and see [17]. Alumina - Market: The alumina price declined. The supply - side contraction policy needs to be observed, and it is recommended to short on rallies [18]. Stainless Steel - Market: The stainless steel price oscillated. The social inventory was still at a high level, and the price is expected to maintain an oscillating pattern [19]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - Market: The cast aluminum alloy price oscillated and declined. The downstream was in the off - season, and the price rebound space is expected to be limited [21]. Black Building Materials Category Steel - Market: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coils showed a weak oscillating trend. The export competitiveness decreased, and the inventory of rebar and hot - rolled coils was at a low level in the past five years. The price is expected to return to the real - trading logic [23]. Iron Ore - Market: The iron ore price rose slightly. The supply increased slightly, and the demand was supported. The price is expected to oscillate following the downstream prices [24][25]. Glass and Soda Ash - Glass: The glass price declined. The inventory decreased, but the downstream demand did not improve significantly. The price is expected to oscillate widely in the short - term [26]. - Soda Ash: The soda ash price was stable. The supply was high, and the demand was weak. The price is expected to oscillate in the short - term [27]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - Market: The prices of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon showed wide - range fluctuations. It is recommended that investment positions wait and see, and hedging positions can participate opportunistically [28][29]. Industrial Silicon - Market: The industrial silicon price oscillated and declined. The supply was excessive, and the demand was insufficient. The price is expected to be weak in the short - term [32]. Polysilicon - Market: The polysilicon price showed a high - level oscillation. The price is expected to oscillate widely in the short - term, and it is recommended to participate cautiously [33][34]. Energy - Chemical Category Rubber - Market: NR and RU declined significantly. The tire factory's operating rate decreased, and the inventory increased. It is recommended to wait and see and conduct band - trading operations [36][37][39]. Crude Oil - Market: The prices of WTI, Brent, and INE crude oil futures declined. The gasoline, diesel, and fuel oil inventories decreased, while the naphtha and aviation kerosene inventories increased. It is recommended to take profits and wait and see [40]. Methanol - Market: The methanol price declined. The supply pressure is expected to increase, and the demand is weak. The price is under pressure [41]. Urea - Market: The urea price declined. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is weak. The price decline space is limited [42]. Styrene - Market: The styrene spot price was stable, and the futures price declined. The BZN spread is expected to repair, and the price is expected to oscillate upward following the cost side [43]. PVC - Market: The PVC price declined. The supply was strong, the demand was weak, and the valuation was high. The price is expected to decline in the short - term [45]. Ethylene Glycol - Market: The EG price declined. The supply decreased slightly, and the demand was weak. The inventory decreased. The price is under downward pressure [46]. PTA - Market: The PTA price declined. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is weak. The inventory increased. The price is expected to oscillate, and it is recommended to buy on dips following PX [47]. Paraxylene - Market: The PX price declined. The supply was high, and the demand was affected by PTA maintenance. The inventory decreased. The price is expected to oscillate, and it is recommended to buy on dips following crude oil [48]. Polyethylene (PE) - Market: The PE price declined. The cost support existed, and the demand was weak. The price is expected to be determined by the game between the cost and supply sides in the short - term [49]. Polypropylene (PP) - Market: The PP price declined. The supply and demand were weak, and the price is expected to oscillate strongly following crude oil [51]. Agricultural Products Category Live Pigs - Market: The pig price declined over the weekend. The supply was abundant, and the demand was weak. The market is paying attention to the policy's intervention in capacity reduction, and it is recommended to focus on the spread opportunities [53]. Eggs - Market: The egg price declined over the weekend. The supply was large, and the demand was weak. The price is expected to be stable first and then rise, and it is recommended to short on rallies in the medium - term [54]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - Market: The US soybean price oscillated weakly, and the domestic soybean meal price was supported. The supply and demand of soybean meal were in a complex situation, and it is recommended to buy on dips at low - cost intervals and expand the spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal [55][56]. Oils and Fats - Market: The domestic palm oil price declined slightly. The export and production data of Southeast Asian palm oil showed different trends. The price is expected to oscillate [57][58][59]. Sugar - Market: The sugar price declined. The sugar production in Brazil and India increased, and the import supply increased. The price is expected to continue to decline [60][61]. Cotton - Market: The cotton price declined. The downstream consumption was weak, and the de - stocking speed slowed down. The price is expected to be short - term bearish [62].
五矿期货文字早评-20250804
Wu Kuang Qi Huo·2025-08-04 01:41