Report Summary 1. Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core View The report suggests that the previous short positions and reverse spreads in the sugar market should be cashed in for profit, and then observe the trend of raw sugar before making further decisions. The domestic sugar market's rhythm is different from the overseas market. Although the overall supply pressure is high and the demand is weak, the mismatch in the supply of processed sugar and domestic sugar has alleviated the impact of concentrated listing to some extent. The international sugar market has entered the accelerated production period of the new crushing season in the central - southern region of Brazil, and the double - weekly production data of UNICA will be the key variable affecting market sentiment. The first estimated sugar production in India is significantly lower than market expectations, which may support the raw sugar from a fundamental perspective [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Core Points and Strategies - Supply: In June 2025, China's sugar imports were 430,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 28.71% and a year - on - year increase of 1434.86%. The cumulative imports from January to June were 1.04 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 19.7%. The time for imported sugar to arrive at the port has been postponed, and the subsequent pressure is still high. However, the staggered supply of processed sugar and domestic sugar has alleviated the impact of concentrated listing [9]. - Demand: Currently, the price of processed sugar is stable. Yunnan sugar has a cost - performance advantage over processed sugar and has better sales than Guangxi sugar, but the overall market trading is average due to strong wait - and - see sentiment [9]. - Inventory: As of the end of May 2025, the national cumulative sugar production was 11.1621 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.1989 million tons; the cumulative sugar sales were 8.1138 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.521 million tons, and the industrial inventory at the end of May was 3.0483 million tons. The inventory of domestic sugar mills is low, but the social inventory is at a moderately high level, and the subsequent inventory build - up of processed sugar will bring greater pressure [9]. - Warehouse Receipts: As of August 1, the number of registered sugar warehouse receipts was 19,443, with 0 valid forecasts, a total of 19,443, compared with 20,642 last week [9][41]. - Basis: The spot prices of sugar in Guangxi, Yunnan, and processed sugar mills have generally decreased, which has stimulated some rigid - demand purchases, but the downstream terminals are still in a wait - and - see state, and the overall spot sales volume is average [9]. - Profit: The out - of - quota import cost of Brazilian sugar has slightly decreased, and the out - of - quota import profit remains flat [9]. - Macro: The previous macro - positive expectations in the domestic market have weakened. The Politburo meeting met market expectations, and there is no additional incremental stimulus. The manufacturing PMI in July was lower than expected, while the non - manufacturing PMI rose slightly. Overseas, the June non - farm payrolls data in the US was significantly revised downwards. The commodity attribute of sugar is bearish in the next few months, while the macro attribute is gradually turning bullish, and the direction of interest rate cuts is certain [9]. - Strategy: It is advisable to cash in the profits of short positions and reverse spreads and then observe the trend of raw sugar. If raw sugar can stop falling and rebound and processed sugar prices remain stable, industrial long positions may have a certain willingness to take delivery [9]. 3.2 This Week's Sugar Market News - Brazil: In the first half of July, the sugarcane crushing volume in the central - southern region of Brazil was 49.823 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 14.77%; the sugar production was 3.406 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 15.07%. From the beginning of the 2025/26 crushing season to the first half of July, the cumulative sugar production was 15.655 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 9.22% [14]. - India: The Indian Sugar and Bioenergy Manufacturers Association (ISMA) estimated that the sugar production in the 2025/26 crushing season will increase by 18% to about 34.9 million tons, compared with 29.5 million tons in the 2024/25 crushing season [15]. 3.3 Weekly Sugar Data - Domestic Production: The sugar production in the 2024 - 2025 season was 11.16 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 12.03%, slightly lower than expected [20]. - Domestic Sales: As of the end of June, the cumulative sugar sales were 7.3834 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.34%, and the cumulative sales rate was 74.11%, a year - on - year slowdown of 2.54 percentage points. As of a certain point, the cumulative sales were 8.1138 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 23.07%, and the cumulative sales rate was 72.69%, a year - on - year acceleration of 6.52 percentage points [24][27]. - Imports: In June 2025, China's imports of syrup and premixed powder totaled 115,500 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 103,500 tons. From January to June 2025, the cumulative imports were 459,100 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 492,400 tons [34]. - Import Cost: The out - of - quota import cost of sugar increased slightly this week [38]. - Warehouse Receipts: As of August 1, the number of registered sugar warehouse receipts decreased compared with last week [41].
白糖周报：印度估产低于预期，单边和反套可获利兑现-20250804
Guo Lian Qi Huo·2025-08-04 01:41