南华锡周报：小幅回落，震荡为主-20250804

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Core View of the Report - The tin price showed a slight decline and is expected to mainly fluctuate in the future. The weekly operating range is estimated to be between RMB 261,000 and RMB 268,000 per ton [1][2] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Disk Review - The main futures contract of Shanghai tin rose and then fell during the week, closing at RMB 264,000 per ton, with a spot premium of RMB 700 per ton on the Shanghai Metal Market. The inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased slightly, and the LME inventory stopped falling. Tin imports continued to incur losses, and the processing fee for 40% tin ore remained stable [1] - The weekly decline of the main Shanghai tin futures contract was 1.09%, the main contract of Shanghai tin continuous one decreased by 1.09%, the main contract of Shanghai tin continuous three dropped by 1.02%, and the LME tin 3M decreased by 2.71%. The Shanghai-London ratio increased by 3.31% [3] 2. Industry Performance - According to the latest report of Indonesian tin miner PT Timah, its refined tin production in the first half of this year decreased by 29% year-on-year to 6,870 tons, and its sales volume decreased by 28% year-on-year to 5,983 tons. The average selling price of refined tin increased by 8% year-on-year to $32,816 per ton [1] 3. Core Logic - The decline of tin price during the week was in line with expectations as the macro - impact was limited. On the supply side, the mining licenses for tin mines in Myanmar have been basically reviewed, and it is expected to resume work officially in late August at the earliest, which will have the greatest impact on the tin fundamentals but will not affect short - term supply and demand much. If the resumption of work in Myanmar falls short of expectations again, the previous negative factors may turn into short - term positive factors. In the next week, the tin price may still mainly fluctuate, and there is still room for speculation on supply - side topics [1] 4. Other Data - The loss of tin imports was RMB 14,300.05 per ton, a decrease of 33.45%. The processing fee for 40% tin ore remained unchanged at RMB 12,200 per ton, and the processing fee for 60% tin ore decreased by 4.74% to RMB 10,050 per ton [7] - The total Shanghai tin warehouse receipts increased by 2.26% to 7,286 tons, the Shanghai tin inventory increased by 3.76% to 7,417 tons, the LME tin registered warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 1,415 tons, and the LME tin cancelled warehouse receipts increased by 64.62% to 535 tons. The LME tin inventory increased by 8.16% to 1,855 tons, and the social inventory decreased by 1.13% to 9,644 tons [10][12] - The price of Shanghai Non - ferrous tin ingots decreased by 2.4% to RMB 264,600 per ton, the 1 tin premium decreased by 28.57% to RMB 500 per ton, the price of 40% tin concentrate decreased by 2.51% to RMB 252,600 per ton, the price of 60% tin concentrate decreased by 2.47% to RMB 256,600 per ton, the price of 60A solder bar decreased by 1.99% to RMB 172,250 per ton, the price of 63A solder bar decreased by 1.91% to RMB 179,750 per ton, and the price of lead - free solder decreased by 2.34% to RMB 270,750 per ton [11]