电解铝期货品种周报-20250804

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The aluminum market is expected to experience large - range oscillations, with prices likely to be weak first and then strong in August. The price of aluminum ore is expected to remain stable in the short - term, and may turn stronger in the fourth quarter if certain conditions are met. The supply of electrolytic aluminum is constrained by the capacity ceiling, and the demand in the downstream industry is in a mixed situation. The market is in a state of intense long - short game in the short - term, but the supply - demand situation in August is relatively optimistic [5][11][14]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Mid - line Market Analysis - Trend Judgment: The short - term lack of new stimulus policies, a decline in investors' risk appetite, and the withdrawal of funds from the industrial products sector have narrowed the volatility of aluminum prices. With inventory accumulation and the consumption off - season as negative factors, the short - term price is under pressure. However, August is the transition period between the off - season and peak season, and with the decline of the US manufacturing index and the expectation of interest rate cuts, as well as domestic support policies, the price may be weak first and then strong. It is advisable to consider mid - line long positions below 2000 yuan [5]. 3.2 Variety Trading Strategy - Last Week's Strategy Review: The price was expected to enter a wide - range oscillation stage, with the Shanghai Aluminum 2509 contract seen in the range of 20200 - 20900, and it was recommended to wait and see [8]. - This Week's Strategy Suggestion: The price may be weak first and then strong in August. In the coming week, the Shanghai Aluminum 2509 contract is expected to be in the range of 20300 - 20900, and short - term trading is appropriate for now [9]. - Suggestion for Spot Enterprises' Hedging: Spot enterprises can consider appropriately allocating virtual inventory in futures at low prices [10]. 3.3 Overall View - Aluminum Ore Market: In the short - term, the supply of domestic aluminum ore is limited, and the price is expected to remain stable. The inventory of imported ore at ports and alumina plants is high, and the supply - demand contradiction is not obvious in the short - term. The price is expected to remain stable in the third quarter and may turn stronger in the fourth quarter if the shipment from Guinea remains low and domestic inventory continues to decline [11]. - Alumina Market: In July, the operating capacity of national metallurgical alumina remained stable at about 88.27 million tons per year. There are new capacity projects in Guangtou Beihai in Q3, and the operating capacity may reach a new high in the first half of the year. Attention should be paid to the rainy season in Guinea and the operating capacity of alumina under the anti - involution situation [11]. - Electrolytic Aluminum Production: With the repair of smelting profits, some production capacity that was cut last year has gradually resumed. The current capacity utilization rate of domestic electrolytic aluminum has exceeded 95%, and new capacity is limited due to the capacity ceiling [11]. - Import and Export: The theoretical loss of electrolytic aluminum imports is about 1300 yuan/ton. Since February 2025, domestic aluminum exports have been growing, and although the growth rate has declined due to tariff disturbances since April, the overall performance is resilient [11]. - Demand: The start - up rate of domestic leading aluminum processing enterprises has decreased slightly. Different sectors have different situations. For example, the start - up rate of aluminum profiles and aluminum foil is expected to remain low, while the start - up rate of aluminum cables may recover in August [13]. - Inventory: The latest inventory of aluminum ingots is 512,000 tons, an increase of about 4% from last week and a decrease of about 35% from the same period last year. The inventory of aluminum rods is 137,800 tons, a decrease of about 10% from last week and an increase of about 5% from last year. The LME electrolytic aluminum inventory has been increasing slightly since July [13]. - Profit: The average cash cost of the Chinese alumina industry is about 2600 yuan/ton, and the profit is about 600 yuan/ton. The average production cost of domestic electrolytic aluminum is about 17,600 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit is about 3200 yuan/ton [14]. - Market Expectation: The proportion of alumina production lines over 10 years old is about 45%. There is a strong expectation of capacity withdrawal under the anti - involution background, and there is still a risk of a short squeeze. However, there is no clear policy on alumina capacity clearance in the high - quality development plan of the aluminum industry from 2025 - 2027, and the supply side has no obvious constraints for now. The short - term long - short game is intense [14]. 3.4 Important Industry Link Price Changes - The prices of most important industry links have changed slightly. For example, the price of alumina has risen and then fallen, the price of coal has continued to rise steadily, and the price of electrolytic aluminum has risen and then fallen, hitting resistance at the 21,000 level [15][16]. 3.5 Important Industry Link Inventory Changes - The inventory of aluminum ore at ports has increased, the inventory of alumina has increased slightly, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum has increased, the inventory of aluminum rods has decreased, and the LME aluminum inventory has continued to increase [18][20]. 3.6 Supply - Demand Situation - Profit: The cash cost of the alumina industry is about 2600 yuan/ton, with a profit of about 600 yuan/ton. The production cost of electrolytic aluminum is about 17,600 yuan/ton, with a theoretical profit of about 3200 yuan/ton. The theoretical import loss of electrolytic aluminum is about 1700 yuan/ton [22]. - Start - up Rate: The start - up rate of domestic leading aluminum processing enterprises has decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 58.7% compared with last week, and is 3.5 percentage points lower than the same period last year. Different sectors have different trends, and the overall start - up rate is expected to continue to decline slightly next week [26][27]. 3.7 Futures - Spot Structure - The overall price structure of Shanghai Aluminum is still in a relatively strong pattern, but the strength has weakened compared with last month [31]. 3.8 Spread Structure - The spread between aluminum ingots and ADC12 is about - 1430 yuan/ton this week, wider than last week. The current spread between primary aluminum and alloy is at a relatively high level in recent years, which may drag down the price of electrolytic aluminum [38][39]. 3.9 Market Capital Situation - LME Aluminum: The net long position has continued to rise slightly in the past 11 weeks. Since May, the short side has reduced positions overall, and the long side has increased positions slightly since early June. The market is expected to be in a relatively strong oscillation in the near future [41]. - SHFE Electrolytic Aluminum: The net long position of the main contract has decreased slightly. Both the long and short sides have increased positions slightly in the past week. The net long position of financial speculative funds has increased first and then decreased, remaining at the same level as last week. The net short position of funds from mid - downstream enterprises has decreased slightly. The market is expected to oscillate at a high level next week [44].