原油：短线观望，多单持有

Report Industry Investment Rating - Short-term outlook: Hold off on new positions and maintain existing long positions in crude oil [1] Core Viewpoints - Crude oil futures prices declined on August 4, 2025. WTI9 crude oil futures fell by $1.93 per barrel (2.79%) to $67.33 per barrel, Brent October crude oil futures dropped by $2.03 per barrel (2.83%) to $69.67 per barrel, and SC2509 crude oil futures decreased by 15.10 yuan per barrel (2.86%) to 513.00 yuan per barrel [1] - The trend strength of crude oil is 1, indicating a neutral outlook [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Supply and Production - Considering compensation measures, OPEC+ actual oil production may increase by 528,000 barrels per day in September. Eight OPEC+ member countries will raise oil production by 547,000 barrels per day in September and will hold their next meeting on September 7 [2] - The total number of US oil rigs as of the week ending August 1 was 410, down from 415 in the previous week [2] Geopolitical and Trade - Russia accounts for about 10% of the global oil supply. Despite US sanctions and warnings from Trump, Indian refineries continue to buy Russian oil. If the global market stops receiving Russia's daily supply of 9.5 million barrels of oil, oil prices could rise to $135 - $140 per barrel [2] - After the US imposed new sanctions, at least two ships carrying Russian oil originally destined for Indian refineries have diverted to other destinations. Trump has urged countries to stop buying Russian oil and threatened to impose a 100% tariff on countries that purchase Russian oil unless Russia reaches a major peace agreement with Ukraine [2] Economic Data - The US seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls in July were 73,000, lower than the previous value of 147,000 and the expected 110,000 [2] - The preliminary annual CPI rate in the Eurozone in July was 2%, in line with the previous value and higher than the expected 1.90% [2] Market Dynamics - As Middle East oil prices rise, Asia is increasing imports of US WTI crude oil [2]